As the war in the Middle East continues, energy markets are still at the centre of investors’ attention. How resilient are global oil and gas flows, and what are the possible scenarios as the situation evolves?

In this episode Helen Freer is joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, to discuss the latest developments in the Middle East and their implications for energy markets and investors. The conversation covers the current level of oil supply disruptions, the effectiveness of alternative trade routes, the role of storage buffers, and the potential for lasting structural changes in global energy markets. Norbert outlines the key scenarios for the months ahead, the economic risks at play, and what investors should keep in mind as uncertainty persists.

(00:00) - Introduction
(00:49) - Crisis dynamics and early surprises
(02:01) - The Strait of Hormuz situation
(03:03) - How oil is moving around the disruption
(04:00) - The role and limits of oil in storage
(05:21) - Energy infrastructure
(06:41) - Economic implications
(07:58) - Could the conflict drive lasting structural changes in energy markets?
(09:36) - Central banks’ policy response
(10:54) - Scenario analysis
(14:55) - Key takeaways for investors
(15:45) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer

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The View Beyond: Energy markets and the economic outlook amid the ongoing war in the Middle East