Moving Markets

The US and Iran have agreed to a two‑week ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, but the deal continues to look fragile. Markets have reacted swiftly, with crude oil prices falling sharply while gold and equity markets rebounded. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, keeping energy supply risks firmly in focus. In this complex backdrop, how attractive is the current market risk‑reward, and how might the geopolitical landscape evolve from here?Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, to assess the implications for global markets and China. They discuss whether investors should chase the recent rebound or stay defensive, the outlook for oil, gold, and the US dollar, and why China’s equity market has shown relative resilience. The conversation also covers China’s economic momentum, sector preferences, and the role of defensive, value, and high‑dividend stocks -- particularly Chinese banks -- in navigating ongoing geopolitical and macro uncertainty.This episode was recorded on 9 April, 2026.(00:00) - A fragile ceasefire and the market rebound (02:00) - Assessing the market risk-reward, geopolitical landscape (04:44) - Has the USD/gold long-term trend changed? (09:22) - How vulnerable is China to high oil prices? (14:58) - Green shoots in China’s economy – signal or seasonal? (19:05) - China’s consumption sector – staples vs discretionary (24:02) - Views on Chinese banks

Equity markets are trading higher amid renewed optimism that the ceasefire will hold, reinforced by Israel’s signal that it is ready to enter direct negotiations with Lebanon. Meanwhile, oil prices continue to rebound following Wednesday’s sharp losses. Investors’ focus now turns to today’s US CPI data for March. In this episode, we are joined by Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX Sales Switzerland, who shares his perspective on what lies ahead for the US dollar.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:45) - FX & metals update: Thomas Caflisch, Head of FX/PM Solutions (10:00) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The last 24 hours were a game of two halves for equity markets – Europe and the US rallied as they celebrated the Middle East ceasefire and crude oil ended Wednesday 16% lower. But then the cracks in the terms of the ceasefire appeared – Israel attacked Lebanon, which Iran said breached the agreement, and Iran claimed that it has the right to enrich uranium, which the US says it does not. And so, oil rose again and Asian equity markets fell. Our Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke, joins the podcast today to unravel the reaction of commodity markets to the ongoing situation. He explains how the ceasefire fits into a pattern in which extreme price spikes trigger both behavioural and political responses, and that markets respond in a monochrome fashion. Tune in to find out more about the possible shades of grey that need consideration.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (05:38) - Reaction of commodities to ceasefire: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (10:08) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Oil fell the most in nearly six years, while stocks surged after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire just hours before a Trump-imposed deadline, giving markets a brief respite from Middle East–driven turbulence. Asian equity markets jumped, Treasuries rallied, the US dollar weakened, and precious metals advanced. Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Strategist, discusses the implications for bond markets, while Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, joins the show to outline what to expect from the upcoming earnings season.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:02) - Bond market update: Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Research (09:55) - Earnings season preview: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (13:24) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Equity gains on Monday were modest and fragile. Risk appetite is fading as investors focus on President Trump’s deadline, rising oil prices, and Middle East tensions. Strong US payrolls on Friday contrast with weaker services employment and rising input costs on Monday, leaving uncertainty over whether inflation pressures will persist. Technology remains a key theme: strong AI demand supported Samsung and Broadcom, while potential IPOs from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI point to rising competition for a limited pool of capital. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, comments on developments in energy markets ahead of President Trump’s deadline.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:55) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:29) - Energy: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (10:01) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Despite a significant selloff following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, global emerging market equities have demonstrated a surprising degree of resilience. What explains this contained drawdown, and how should investors differentiate across regions even as volatility persists?(00:00) - Introduction (01:11) - Current resilience of emerging markets (01:59) - Earnings revisions and relative performance (03:18) - Market sensitivity and the nature of the drawdown (04:23) - Energy costs and financial conditions (06:16) - Monetary policy impact and US dollar outlook (07:00) - AI as a growth driver in emerging markets (07:30) - Outlook for EM equities (09:14) - Closing remarks and legal information In this episode of Julius Baer’s Moving Markets: The View Beyond, Ayako Lehmann is joined by Nenad Dinic, Emerging Market Strategist at Julius Baer, to examine the recent performance of emerging market equities in the wake of geopolitical shocks. They discuss why the fundamental story for the asset class remains robust, the importance of distinguishing between net energy importers and exporters, and how factors such as a weakening US dollar and the AI-driven CapEx cycle are shaping the outlook. The conversation also addresses the implications of regional dispersion, the role of earnings revisions, and why patient investors may find compelling opportunities amid ongoing uncertainty.

In his highly anticipated address to the nation, President Trump dashed hopes of a swift resolution to the conflict with Iran, announcing that the US would ‘hit Iran very hard’ in the coming weeks. Markets reacted immediately: stocks reversed earlier gains, government bond yields rose, and oil prices and the US dollar moved sharply higher on the news. In this episode, we are joined by Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, who shares his insights on the increasingly concerning developments in the aluminium market - and what these dynamics could mean for the market in the weeks ahead.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:29) - Aluminium: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (09:46) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Global markets showed signs of recovery yesterday after a highly volatile March, with European equities stabilising and US indices staging an impressive rally. However, persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on sentiment, fuelling higher energy prices and pushing Eurozone inflation above the ECB’s target. Asian markets opened April on a strong footing, led by a sharp surge in Japanese and South Korean equities. Today we’re joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, to explore the latest developments in corporate credit markets and explain the headlines in private credit. We also welcome Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who discusses how equity markets are reacting to the ongoing geopolitical situation and offers a deep dive into emerging market equities.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:13) - Bond market update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (11:26) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (16:24) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Despite strong German inflation, global bond yields fell as markets shifted from inflation concerns to weakening growth signals. Soft Swiss KOF and Eurozone confidence data reinforced this move, pushing investors into bonds. Fed chair Jerome Powell said the central bank has limited influence over supply‑driven price spikes, reducing expectations of imminent US rate increases. In equities, Europe held up, while US markets weakened as sentiment stayed fragile, oil prices stayed high, and volatility persisted after a month of war. Gold is recovering, up nearly 10% from last week’s low. Overall, traders point to cleaner positioning, weak sentiment after a sharp global equity drop and a bond‑yield spike this month, and quarter‑end flows as key drivers of market moves at the end of the month. Damien Ng from Next Generation Research highlights a promising outlook for healthcare, driven by better diagnostics and AI‑enabled drug discovery.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:24) - Future Health: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research (12:55) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Risk-off sentiment dominated the end of last week, with the S&P 500 posting its fifth consecutive weekly decline. Markets remained broadly cautious amid scepticism about any near-term geopolitical de-escalation after several days of headline-driven volatility. Concerns over a prolonged conflict and the risk of spillover effects on inflation and demand as a result of higher oil prices continued to weigh on sentiment. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, highlights why lower oil prices are critical for equity markets and what it implies now that the S&P 500 has fallen below its 200-day moving average.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (01:00) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:17) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:57) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.