FICC Focus

Finance professor Aswath Damodaran discusses valuation challenges including disrupted media and dysfunctional governments. The podcast also explores the distress ratio, importance of storytelling in valuation, distressed debt behavior, government involvement, streaming video and sports valuation, role of faith in investing, liability issues for Hawaiian Electric, and updates on the Alameda grayscale lawsuit.

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence chief G-10 FX strategist, and Stuart Paul, Bloomberg Economics' US economist, discuss possible US recession risks, the US economic outlook into 4Q and 2024 and associated downside risks for the dollar. Audrey and her colleague talk about how the US economy already may have started to turn, and how -- combined with a mid-term disinflation outlook -- 2024 Fed rate cuts may be contemplated after all, which could trigger yet another change in the FX narrative and give dollar downside a chance again.Audrey and Stuart also touch on US politics and how government shutdown risks could soon return as a market consideration and potentially become more of a dollar driver than in the past, with more of a negative effect.

“Your optimized portfolio isn't optimal if you can't trade it.” Paul Kamenski and Robert Lam, co-heads of credit for Man Numeric, join Noel Hebert and Sam Geier of Bloomberg Intelligence on the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about the evolution and outlook for systematic credit. Trade automation, training models and why systemic credit is still in it's early stages of growth. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series. 

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Pierre de Saab, Partner at Dominice to discuss the latest developments in the volatility landscape. Topics discussed includes interest-rate volatility, VIX risk premium, call overwriting strategies and zero-days-to-expiry options (ODTEs), which now make up more than 50% of the overall volume of SPX options traded.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, Senior UK Economist. They discuss the Bank of England, economic outlook and market volatility.

Despite trillions being passed through recent bills to reduce inflation and spur infrastructure spending, neither goal has really been met. At first blush, the prospects of all that federal money being directed at much needed infrastructure improvements and repairs was music to the muni markets ears. However, that dream of being part of the funding solution has never really materialized and only added to the myriad of issues facing the tax-exempt market.Joining myself and Karen this month to discuss the many challenges the municipal market is facing is Hector Negroni, Founder and CEO of Foundation Credit. For those unfamiliar, Foundation is a leading alternative asset manager dedicated to municipal credit and infrastructure debt markets in the United States. Hector is no stranger to our markets, with a career spanning over 3 decades in investing proprietary trading, public/private financing, derivatives, and structured products.

“The 10-year Treasury ending the year around 4.2-4.3% seems fair, but the recent selloff has been overdone,” William Marshall, head of US rates strategy at BNP Paribas says. Marshall joins host Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US interest rate strategist on the Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus Podcast to discuss his market views in the wake of the September FOMC meeting. The pair dissect recent yield moves across the curve, as well as underlying catalysts and narratives. These include a persistently high federal deficit, elevated Treasury issuance and potential sources of demand for securities amid a deluge of T-bill and coupon issuance. Marshall sees no broad liquidity pressures on funding markets via the impact of the Fed’s asset runoff, which could continue past his expectations for interest rate cuts beginning in June.

Kris Hansen, co-chair of the financial restructuring group at Paul Hastings, discusses the intersection of crypto and bankruptcy, Chapter 11 as a forum for resolving mass tort, and the misconception of 'creditor-on-creditor violence'. The podcast also covers the impact of retail-driven supplier bankruptcies, challenges and benefits of tort cases in bankruptcy, dismissal of 3M's bankruptcy case, and the status of AMC and Cinemark appeal.

Should the US economy avoid a recession over the coming months as anticipated by the Bloomberg Economics team, the Federal Reserve may remain on hold for all of 2024, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey says on the latest episode of the Macro Matters podcast. The Fed may be forced to end asset runoff in 1H24, he says, as reserves become scarce. In addition, Jersey answers other common questions from buy-side investors during his recent California roadshow, including about the potential near-term impact of federal deficits on domestic rate markets. US Interest Rate Strategy Associate Will Hoffman views nuances to August’s monthly Treasury statement and the implications for issuance.

Emerging market currency volatility is on the rise, as the dovish tilt in monetary policy causes real yield differentials to converge with the US and Europe. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through episode, Shamaila Khan, Head of Emerging Markets & Asia-Pacific at UBS Asset Management Americas, joins Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to deliver her outlook on emerging market debt. From idiosyncratic risk in EM distressed debt to China’s struggling property sector, we discuss the opportunities and risks facing EM creditors.