FICC Focus

Distressed debt has risen sharply in the past two weeks, with the outlook increasingly uncertain heading into year-end. Global Credit Strategy head Noel Hebert, BI distressed credit analyst Philip Brendel and BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku discuss this and other topics in this edition of the State of Distressed Debt podcast. In other topics, Balluku interviews Electric Capital General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer Emily Meyers on the impact of bankruptcies on crypto's regulatory landscape here and abroad, the SEC's recent losing streak in court and Meyers' outlook for legislative progress (7:40). Also, Balluku, Hebert and Brendel discuss Rite Aid, Akumin, WeWork, Incora, Hertz's post-petition interest fight and Diamond Sports (50:10).

The bar has increasingly moved higher for the Bank of England to hike again in this cycle after leaving rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting. The market is focused on the timing and extent of 2024 rate cuts. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, Senior UK Economist. They discuss the BOE, economic outlook and market volatility.

“Our view is that the Fed is done hiking. But the question now turns to how long the Fed maintains rates at this level,” Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US interest rate strategist says. On this Macro Matters episode of the FICC Focus podcast, Jersey reviews recent developments following the November FOMC meeting and the Treasury department’s quarterly refunding announcement. He says Chair Jerome Powell sounded more dovish than he had at previous meetings, but still anticipates the Fed holding rates at current levels through 2024. Jersey also highlights a framework for how the quantum of Treasury debt may affect yields at differing levels of economic growth.

Armen Panossian, managing director and incoming co-CEO for Oaktree Capital Management, discusses private-credit growth, high-yield opportunities, expected impacts from an economic slowdown, and more. They explore various markets within private credit, opportunities in high-yield bonds and distressed debt, the impact of rising interest rates on debt servicing, and the transition from high yield to private credit.

“There’s always an opportunity at the issuer level in leveraged finance,” Bryan Whalen, co-chief investment officer and a generalist portfolio manager for TCW’s fixed income group says. Whalen joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to discuss positioning for economic turbulence across core-plus and high yield, the value proposition in mortgage-backed securities and why corporate credit spreads look tight.

Emerging market risk premia is on the rise, as higher geopolitical risk amplifies the impact from tighter financial conditions. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through podcast, JPMorgan Managing Director of EM Fixed Income Strategy Saad Siddiqui joins Chief EM Fixed Income Strategist Damian Sassower to deliver his outlook on emerging market interest rates and foreign exchange. From the selloff in US Treasuries to rising oil prices and China's struggling economic recovery, we discuss the opportunities and risks facing EM investors.

Rates are higher (for longer, if we’re being honest), the curve is pancaking and, once again, fixed-income losses will be headline fodder. However, with every tick higher in benchmark yields, municipals get an opportunity that many in the asset class won’t see in a career. For those investors focused on building an income stream and less on immediate statement marks, munis are becoming the must-have accessory for this fall season. James Pruskowski, chief investment officer and head of the Global Client Business at 16Rock asset management, joins Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano this month to discuss the latest run-up in rates, the macro headwinds buffeting the market and what technological change in munis may look like.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Mandy Xu, Head of Derivatives Market Intelligence at CBOE. They address concerns over zero-days-to-expiry options (0DTEs), the typical users and common strategies traded. Other topics include the lack of reactivity of the VIX to market declines and dispersion trading.

“There’s no hope on the [US federal] deficit front,” says Robert Tipp, PGIM’s Chief Investment Strategist and head of global bonds on this 200th edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus Podcast. Tipp joins host Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US interest rate strategist on this Macro Matters episode to discuss the state of the global rates markets, including Tipp’s view on the near term and more secular drivers of Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve’s policy. Tipp sees the longer-term bull market in rates coming to an end, and looks for the Fed’s policy-rate terminal floor to be at or above 3%. Importantly, he also views deficits as being detrimental to the Treasury market, but sees opportunity for investors to benefit from being in corporate credit as the Fed’s hiking cycle ends. In the Interest Rate Intro segment of the podcast, US interest rate strategy associate Will Hoffman asks Jersey about financial conditions and how tightening feeds into the Fed’s near-term interest rate action.

High yield had a great year in terms of returns in both US and Europe. In Europe, we saw just two index defaults this year and the proportion of stressed and distressed bonds is under control while its surged in the US. Will 4Q sustain this year's gains, and when do we see a default wave, if any? Listen to Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief European Credit Strategist, discuss the results of the 4Q23 High Yield Survey and comment on the market outlook and trends in a Q&A format with George Flynn, Head of Credit at Wisealpha Technologies.They discuss our 4Q23 investor survey publication, covering investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value opinions by geography, rating and sector in detail.