FICC Focus

Sticky high rates have put an elevated floor under distressed supply. That’s the first topic Noel Hebert, Bloomberg Intelligence’s head of global credit strategy, and Philip Brendel, BI distressed credit analyst, discuss in this month’s State of Distressed Debt edition of the FICC Focus podcast. Then, BI bankruptcy litigation analyst Negisa Balluku and Phil interview Abid Qureshi, a partner in Akin Gump’s financial restructuring practice, on his insights into liability management exercises and the impacts of mediation (5:40). Finally, Negisa, Noel, and Phil discuss their outlooks for WeWork, GOL Airlines, Incora, and Diamond Sports (48:00) in light of recent developments.

Matthew Moniot, Managing Director and Co-Head of Credit Risk at Man Group, discusses the evolution and significance of credit risk sharing since the financial crisis. He contrasts U.S. and European banking practices, diving into the mechanics of synthetic risk transfer structures and their impact on capital ratios. Moniot also emphasizes due diligence in loan evaluations and strategic portfolio management during turbulent times, reflecting on past crises and the importance of proactive investment decisions in a fluctuating market.

In our latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) chief G-10 FX strategist, discusses the dollar's prospects in the wake of recent US macro news flow with Brad Bechtel, global head of FX sales and trading at Jefferies LLC. Brad and Audrey look at how the unexpectedly strong turn in US data has revived broad dollar strength, consistent with Brad's base case. Yet, given ever-changing G10-FX drivers and narratives, both favor taking a quarter-by-quarter approach.Audrey and her guest agree the cost-of-carry conundrum won't be solved by the Bank of Japan ending YCC, or even modest rate rises. In the near term, they think yen bulls may look for Swiss-yen downside and forget about a sustainable decline in dollar-yen for now -- the latter pair may reach 152 before it reaches 140.

The risk of inflation re-accelerating is really in the last three months of 2024, says Anna Wong, chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics. In this episode of the Macro Matters podcast, Wong joins host and Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey to discuss details of the January FOMC meeting, including implications for the path of monetary policy and any potential easing this year. The pair also address some of the risks to the economy, both to the upside and downside, that may influence future Fed decisions. 

With the election year well on its way, peak partisanship and geopolitical volatility may mean increased risk for municipal bond markets. Though past election years have returned more wins than losses for munis, macro issues will continue to be a hurdle. To discuss these possible threats and the latest federal income-tax developments, we have Bloomberg Intelligence’s tax policy expert, Andrew Silverman, joining co-hosts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano of BI.

Blue Owl has grown from a few ideas to an alternatives manager with over $150 billion in assets under management, including almost $80 billion in credit. Craig Packer, co-president and head of credit for Blue Owl, joined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on the latest episode of Credit Crunch to talk about the evolution of the company, the direct lending market, why the asset class can continue to grow, and where Blue Owl sees opportunity. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series.

“In the 12 months following a rate hiking cycle, typically, going out duration has a really strong potential return,” says Bobby Martin, Co-Head of Fixed Income Investment Specialists at UBS Asset Management. Martin joins Macro Matters host and BI chief US rates strategist Ira Jerseyto review the state of domestic and global fixed-income markets. The pair discuss the stronger-than-expected macroeconomic backdrop and what it means for markets, as well as the risks facing the US economy in the medium term.

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's chief global derivatives strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management. They discuss the key themes in the options market amid the focus on the easing cycle this year.

Global rate cuts seem certain, but the timing is less so. In this episode of the Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast, host Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief US interest rate strategist is joined by colleague Huw Worthington, chief European rate strategist, to preview the themes and research found within their recently published deep dive on the G3+ rates markets. The report features a comprehensive review of the global sovereign debt markets that underpin the world’s financial markets. It includes proprietary models and centralized analysis of influential trends and catalysts from the BI global interest-rate strategy team across the medium to long term, along with forecasts from Bloomberg Economics. Read the report here on the Bloomberg Terminal.

CLOs are driving loan supply and in this Credit Crunch podcast, host Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief European Credit Strategist and Paul Mehta, Head of Leveraged Loans at Aberdeen, reflect on how the leveraged loan market fared last year and the outlook for loans in 2024.They discuss BI's leveraged loan outlook publication covering loan pricing, returns, supply and relative value vs. high yield bonds as well as loan growth relative to the bond market and private credit in detail and also address the outlook for CLO issuance, reinvestment risks and arbitrage evolution and implications for 2024.