FICC Focus

William ‘Tuck’ Hardie, a Managing Director at Houlihan Lokey with over 20 years of experience in financial restructuring, discusses the rising wave of distressed debt driven by post-pandemic rate hikes. He shares insights on liability management transactions and the shift towards out-of-court restructuring. Tuck emphasizes the role of private credit and CLOs in prolonging distress scenarios. He also highlights the importance of monitoring creditor relations and the cyclical nature of current market vulnerabilities, including sectors like healthcare and telecom.

The Federal Reserve is restrictive, and policymakers left themselves room to cut on the way up, says Greg Faranello, head of US rates at AmeriVet Securities. In this Macro Matters edition of the Bloomberg Intelligence FICC Focus podcast, Faranello joins hosts Ira Jersey, BI chief US rates strategist, and Will Hoffman, US rates strategy associate, to discuss the state of the Treasury market. The trio examine the recent repricing of Fed policy expectations, outlook for quantitative tightening and the impact of persistent federal deficits on the secondary Treasury market.

In the latest FX Moment podcast, host Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief G10 FX strategist, talks about the Swiss economy, the SNB's outlook and prospects for the franc with Valerie Lemaigre, head of Investment Office and chief economist at Banque Cantonale de Geneve. In particular, Valerie and Audrey explore how the outlook for Swiss growth and inflation may sway SNB near-term monetary policy direction and why the franc's recent underperformance (to the extent that it feeds positively through the inflation channel) takes pressure off the SNB to begin imminent easing.This suggests that a not-so-dovish March 21 SNB meeting may give the franc temporary breathing space, with a likely euro-Swiss near-term consolidation near 0.95-0.97, while dollar-Swiss remains at the mercy of the greenback's narrative.

Exploring the weakening demand for MBS from banks and international buyers due to delayed expectations of the US Federal Reserve's rate cut. Discussing shifts in MBS market dynamics, impact of Fed policy changes on securities demand, underperformance drivers, and implications of regulatory changes on hedging behavior.

For a market notoriously known for resisting change, the municipal bond market is arguably one of the most in need of advanced technologies. Artificial intelligence may finally bring better fair value pricing to munis’ nuanced and illiquid market. In the latest Masters of the Muniverse episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus podcast, Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by ficc.ai’s co-founder, Charles Elkan, to discuss how machine learning and muni ETFs can bring real-time pricing to muniland.

Emerging market carry should continue to outperform, as the fall in foreign exchange volatility reflects capitulation by dollar bulls. In this month’s EM Lens & Look-Through edition of Bloomberg Intelligence’s FICC Focus podcast, Phoenix Kalen, Head of EM Research at Société Générale, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence chief EM fixed income strategist, to share her view on valuations and investor positioning across EM local rates, currencies and credit. Macroeconomic risks appear back-loaded to 2H, when US presidential elections may fuel a rise in EM volatility.

Systematic credit investors seek to capitalize on mispricings that can be overlooked or hard to identify in more traditional investment strategies. Scott Richardson, director of Systematic Credit at Acadian Asset Management, has been at the forefront of the approach and joins Bloomberg Intelligence podcast hosts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch to talk through they keys to success: Identifying relative value, modeling default forecasts, portfolio construction, comparing value in primary vs. secondary markets, examining liquidity premiums and the importance of transparency. Credit Crunch is a part of the FICC Focus podcast series

In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Catherine Clay, Global Head of Derivatives at Cboe. They discuss zero-days-to-expiry options (0DTEs), cross-asset volatility and potential for options on Bitcoin ETFs.

Seth Carpenter, chief global economist at Morgan Stanley, expects the Federal Reserve to taper its balance-sheet policy in May and to begin easing interest rates in June. Carpenter joins hosts Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman of the Bloomberg Intelligence interest rate strategy team to give his views on economies and markets in this Macro Matters edition of the BI FICC Focus podcast. The trio discuss ongoing economic and inflationary dynamics, including the disinflationary process, potential catalysts and impacts of adjustments to the Fed’s balance-sheet policy. Carpenter also digs into the US Treasury Department’s decision-making process when determining the composition of Treasury issuance.

High yield had a great 2023 in both US and Europe, due to a strong 4Q rally in rates and spreads. In Europe, the index default rate stands at 0.8% and the proportion of stressed and distressed bonds is under control, while it's higher in the US. Will 1Q sustain the 4Q gains, and will we see defaults pick up? Listen to Mahesh Bhimalingam, Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief European Credit Strategist, discuss the results of the 1Q24 High Yield Survey and comment on the market outlook and trends in a Q&A format with George Flynn, Head of Credit at Wisealpha Technologies.They discuss our 1Q24 investor survey publication, covering investor positioning, sentiment, key return drivers, default and supply forecasts and relative-value opinions by geography, rating and sector in detail.