Kontrarian Korner

Yesterday I had E.M. Burlingame back on the podcast, and we covered a bunch of different topics. We hit on everything from current events and geopolitics, estrogen based warfare, where he sees the US headed over the next several years and longer term, and the hyper-financialized economies of the West. I will be having him back on soon to discuss what he is working on in the health and medicine area, and why it is extremely important for people to understand some of the things that have happened with food and medicine over the last 80 years. You can find him on Twitter (after a return from a hiatus), or on his Substack below.Podcast Summary* Current events across the world, including what is going on in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and here in the US. * Why he sees recent events as part of one big color revolution, and his view on estrogen based warfare.* How the events in Israel and Iran might play out, and why Iran is stronger than many in the West think.* Why the US empire is pulling back due to financial constraints.* The LA riots, immigration, and the prospect for more civil unrest.* The coming Constitutional crisis, the power of judges, and why the local level is extremely important moving forward.* What he sees as the 2026 midterm elections approach.* How the coming generational change might impact the path of the US.* How the events in 2020 and lockdowns were a dividing line for recent events.* Why he thinks America’s best years are still ahead if we can get through the bumpy period he sees coming over the next decade.* The potential for the US to end up in a more hierarchical form of government like a Constitutional monarchy.* His view on Europe and the path forward there.* How technology and warfare has changed, but some important aspects have stayed the same.* What he sees coming for the hyper-financialization for economies across the West.* Why the West has a collateral problem, and how the US could create a sovereign wealth fund* Book Recommendation: The Secret History of Mongol Queens by Jack Weatherford.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Trader Ferg on the podcast again to talk about his big picture view of financial markets. We got into his favorite commodities, his high level thoughts on which subsectors are the most attractive, and his view of the big picture from 30,000 feet. It was a great conversation, and if you aren’t already familiar with his work on Substack, you should check it out below.Podcast Summary* Why he has the most conviction on oil long-term, some of the information sources he follows, and what subsectors he favors.* His view on the important question for energy investors, which is “Can the Permian Basin ramp production again, and if it can, how much production can they bring online?”* Platinum group metals, including rhodium, and Anglo selling the bottom again by spinning out Valterra.* Gold to oil, and why this time might be different if gold is used to recapitalize the system.* What he sees in the coal sector, the royalty regime in Australia, and why he’s partial to met coal names in the US.* Uranium and the potential for a short squeeze.* We went into a couple other metals, and he laid out why he is very bullish on tin and not all that excited about copper.* Shipping and shipyards, and why you have to be careful in shipyards with China’s dominant position in shipbuilding.* Debt, deficits, TLT, and why all roads lead to inflation.* Why he isn’t as bullish on natural gas as other commodities.* Battling the psychological ups and downs in markets and the difficulty of having a long-term view with the short-termism that dominates financial markets today.* Book Recommendations: House of Huawei by Eva Dou & Meditations by Marcus AureliusKontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comBefore I get into the post today, I wanted to give everyone a heads up that I will be on the road for a couple weeks starting next week. I’ll be in the Portland area for a couple days starting next Sunday (June 22-25), then in Minneapolis for the back half of next week (June 26-29), and then in Seattle until the 4th of July. If anyone wants to meet up in the next couple weeks and it happens to work with your schedule, feel free to send me a DM.Over the last couple weeks, I have spent a lot of time on the phone trying to get a feel for how Sable Offshore $SOC is going to proceed from here. In the video, I laid out how the next couple months could play out regarding the hearing on July 18, OSFM sign off, and what happens if the company has to appeal to a higher court. I explained the logic behind a recent trade I made, and why I think this thing gets resolved in the next couple months. I also talked about recent geopolitical events between Iran and Israel, what might happen with oil, and how it might impact China specifically.DisclaimerI own shares and calls on Sable Offshore. You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comOn Tuesday I had PauloMacro back on the podcast, and we covered everything from oil and precious metals, to geopolitics, market structure, bonds, and the risks he sees in different corners of the market. I don’t always listen to my own podcasts a second time, but I had to go back for seconds yesterday. Listeners will definitely get a lot to think about from this one, whether you are interested in oil, the metals, or a big picture view of financial markets. For anyone that isn’t familiar with Paulo, I have included a link to his Substack below.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

On Wednesday, I had Dave Collum back on the podcast. As always, it was an entertaining and wide ranging conversation. It’s worth a listen if you have the time this weekend. We talked the overvaluation in financial markets, some of the non-fundamental drivers, commodities, and private equity. We also covered different problems facing society, from changes coming for the university system, demographics, and more. We didn’t even have time to dive into some of the rabbit holes he has been going down lately, so I will definitely be having him back on the podcast sooner rather than later. You can find Dave on Twitter, and I’m already looking forward to his 2025 Year In Review.Podcast Summary* His view on financial markets, valuations, and other distortions in the financial system.* He mentioned the increasing volume and frequency about the Fourth Turning.* Gold, silver, platinum and his view on the precious metals, and which ones are the most attractive right now.* Entitlements like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, and some of the demographic changes happening now. * Feminism, changes coming for the university system, and the connection between private equity and the endowment problem.* The toxic sludge in private equity and private equity and how that might manifest itself in coming years.* We talked about energy and went back and forth on the different arguments on the Permian rolling over, and different subsectors in energy that look interesting today.* Uranium, Coal, and other opportunities in the commodities space that look appealing.* Book Recommendation: The True Believer by Eric Hoffer.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Monday I had first time guest Jesse Felder on the podcast to cover a bunch of different things going on in financial markets. We talked about his view on a commodities supercycle, and why he finds energy particularly attractive currently. We also talked currencies, passive investing, real estate, and several other topics. It was a fun conversation, and for investors with views that are outside of the consensus, it might be interesting. You can find Jesse at his website, The Felder Report, and on Twitter and Bluesky. Podcast Summary* Energy, and his thoughts on gold to oil being at extreme levels.* Which pockets of the market are seeing insider buying.* Why he thinks we are in a commodities supercycle.* Oil equities being more attractive than natural gas at current levels.* Gold and the miners, and why we might see a pullback in gold in the next 3-6 months. * His view on why the dollar is currently overvalued relative to other currencies.* How cheap commodities are relative to stocks and bonds, and how long a commodities cycle might last. * How passive and other forms of investing distort financial markets.* Active management making a comeback in the next several years. * Why we could see stagflation moving forward from here. * The path for interest rates, the potential for yield curve control, and where real estate might be headed over the next several years.* Book Recommendation: The Confidence Map by Peter Atwater.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI had a couple thoughts rolling around my head on Sable Offshore $SOC , along with some visuals that I wanted to share. I’ll keep pounding the table because I think this freight train is about to leave the station.

On Friday I had Jon Costello on the podcast to focus on the energy sector, and some of the individual ideas he likes in different subsectors and geographies. He writes on the HFIR Ideas side for HFI Research. It was the perfect follow up conversation after I had Wilson on the podcast last Wednesday. If you’re looking for a starting point for your research on some single stock ideas in the energy space, you will enjoy this podcast.Podcast Summary* Jon’s big picture view on energy over the next 6-18 months, and his approach to investing in the sector. * Why he favors the Canadian energy names and offshore oil services. * What happens to North American energy companies with oil below $70 a barrel as far as Capex cuts and production growth. * The impact of the Canadian election on the Canadian companies and the macro picture for oil.* Which Canadian names he likes and why, from the large companies to smaller names that aren’t as widely followed. * British Petroleum $BP and Elliott Management’s activist push to get them to focus on their traditional oil and gas assets.* Offshore oil services, the embedded call option in the stacked capacity of some of these companies, why he prefers the deepwater companies, and which companies he favors in the sector. * He lays out the nuance he sees on natural gas vs. oil, and his thoughts on being bullish on gas being a more consensus view today.* Midstream ideas, MLPs, and which stocks he favors in sector. * Book Recommendation: Descartes’ Error by Antonio Damasio. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Wilson from HFI Research back on the podcast to discuss everything going on lately when it comes to oil. We talked about OPEC, Capex cuts in the Permian, and how he expects the next couple years will play out in the energy space. If you are listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, you might want to switch over to Substack or YouTube so you can see the charts on the video. You can find HFI Research on Substack below, but you can also find him on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The recent news from OPEC, and why the production cut that is now being unwound was really a Saudi production cut, not an OPEC cut.* Why the OPEC production boost doesn’t signal an incoming price war. * The disconnect between the narrative and reality when it comes to OPEC. * How tariff and macro uncertainty factor into the perception of oil demand for the rest of 2025. * How OPEC is forcing the inevitable, and why he thinks non-OPEC oil supply will disappoint to the downside moving forward. * Capex cuts in the Permian due to lower oil prices, and the disconnect between consensus US production vs. the HFI estimates.* Why he thinks we will see more Capex cuts in the Permian in coming months, especially if oil sits around $60 a barrel. * How all of this leads to a structural supply deficit for oil from 2026 and beyond.* The timing problem when it comes to buying energy equities and the disconnect between the fundamentals and the narrative when it comes to oil.* Why $70 a barrel was the worst case scenario for shale operators.* Why we could see more M&A in the Permian.* His view on tariff and trade deal negotiations, and why he doesn’t see a quick resolution.* His view on Iranian sanctions, and why they won’t be effective.* The Strategic Petroleum Reserve being filled up and why logistical issues mean it will take a long time to refill.* Why natural gas will be the first energy commodity to go into a bull market, and why he thinks we could see a spike in natural gas this summer.* Potential scenarios where the US might have to shut in LNG export capacity in 2026. * What he prioritizes when he is looking at natural gas equities: the lowest cost producers, and producers that are not as hedged. * His thoughts on the challenges of entrepreneurship.* Book Recommendations: The Nvidia Way by Tae Kim, Source Code by Bill Gates & Shoe Dog by Phil Knight.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

Yesterday I had Andy from Finding Value Finance back on the podcast. We talked about commodities, different ratios like gold to oil, and his long term thoughts on where markets are headed. If you happen to be listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, you might want to switch over to Substack or YouTube so you can see the charts on the video. It was a great conversation and will definitely be food for thought on long term market cycles, and some of the most attractive places to look in the market right now. You can find him at Finding Value Finance, on YouTube, and on Twitter.Podcast Summary* How the devaluation of the dollar impacts how commodities move long term.* The importance of zooming out and looking at long term charts.* What he sees with oil inventories and from conference calls from several subsectors in energy.* The bearish narrative around tariff uncertainty, recession and oil demand, and OPEC spare capacity. * What he sees for natural gas and oil services moving forward. * The gold to oil ratio (more than 55 barrels for one ounce of gold), and why he doesn’t see the ratio blowing out even more from here. * Why he’s still bullish on gold, but finds other precious metals like platinum and silver more attractive at today’s prices.* What he likes outside of energy and precious metals, from lithium to agricultural commodities, coal, and steel.* His thoughts on residential real estate and some of the crosswinds that will have an impact over the next 3-5 years. * Book Recommendation: The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe