Kontrarian Korner

Yesterday I had Tom Luongo back on the podcast to talk about everything going on in the Trump Administration, the Federal Reserve, and on the geopolitical chessboard. We got into tariffs and the recent trade deal with Europe, the Deep State, the impact of stablecoins on the financial system, and the important role gold will play moving forward. You can find Tom on Twitter and over at Gold Goats n’ Guns. Podcast Summary* Tariffs and their impact on his trademark cigars, and reorganizing the global economy.* The European trade deal, and what Trump might have given in return for that deal.* The order of operations when it comes to Trump going after the Deep State. * The state of the Federal Reserve, the importance of the next Fed Chair, and what they will do over the rest of 2025.* Stablecoins, the Treasury, and a potential return to a community banking model.* The state of the oil market, and the reason for the Brent-WTI spread tightening up. * The geopolitical state of Europe, and where capital flows are headed over the next several years.* Gold becoming a more important part of the financial system moving forward, and why the financial system needs more collateral.* Book Recommendation: Chapterhouse: Dune by Frank Herbert.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Friday I had Matt Warder back on the podcast for an update on the coal sector. We also got into copper, rare earths, and several other big picture financial market topics. If you’re interested in the coal sector or have some of the individual coal stocks on your watchlist, you guys will like this one. If you’re listening on one of the podcast apps, you might want to switch to YouTube or Substack because Matt shared some charts along the way. You can find The Coal Trader Substack below, but he’s also on Twitter.Podcast Summary* High level view for met coal vs. thermal and why the worst is behind us for both commodities.* Why coal is approaching a trough at some point in the next 18 months for the next 5 year cycle.* How the war in Ukraine and European steel production could have an impact on met coal. * Copper, rare earths, MP Materials, and how the government is going to play a role in several different critical supply chains moving forward. * The ties between natural gas and thermal coal.* At the end we get some of the individual names in the sector and he lays out why he is partial to Core Natural Resources CNR now. * The factor driven rally in recent weeks where high short interest stocks have rallied, which also included the coal stocks. * How tariffs and other political headlines impact the coal sector. * The dollar, interest rates, and other macroeconomic factors that feed into commodity markets. * Book Recommendation: Apple In China by Patrick McGee.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comYesterday I had Wilson from HFI Research back on the podcast to give us an update on the energy sector. We talked about current events and sanctions, what US oil production will look like over the next 18 months, and what OPEC has planned for that same timeframe. If you’re trying to get a feel for what the rest of 2025 and 2026 hold for the energy sector, you will enjoy this one. You can find his Substack below, but you can also find him on Twitter. Podcast Summary* The knee jerk reaction to sanctions on Russian oil, and why they won’t stick.* Chinese inventories increasing, if/when China will stop buying, and Chinese oil demand.* Positioning in distillates (diesel) being at bullish extremes, and how long it might take for that positioning to unwind.* His thoughts on the refining sector, and why it will take some time to see a more favorable environment for refiners.* Associated gas production in the US outpacing crude oil production due to deteriorating well results.* Producers in the Permian saying that their production is going to plateau. Chevron as an example recently revised guidance for higher gas and NGL production and lower crude production.* Why he’s expecting flat US crude oil production into year end.* What US production might look like if oil prices go higher into 2026.* The case for natural gas, and why it’s based on a structural demand increase for LNG.* Why the Haynesville is the only region of the US capable of providing excess gas.* Why Canada is in a different situation when it comes to natural gas, and why AECO (Canadian natural gas) will never trade at premium to Henry Hub (US natural gas).* OPEC, and what they have in store for the rest of 2025 and into 2026, and why he sees WTI heading back down into the 60s later this year.* The signposts he’s looking for as far as Saudi production, OPEC, and US production to get very bullish on oil.* Why things in energy markets get obvious before the price move happens.* Offshore drillers, and the structural supply deficit that is going to benefit from increased offshore capex in coming years.* Oil sands producers in Canada, and why producers with long reserve life assets are attractive.* The political environment in Canada, the offtake capacity being a bottleneck longer term, and why they will continue to consolidate north of the border.* The 2018 blowout in WCS-WTI differentials (Canadian oil prices vs. US).* Venezuela, the waivers for Chevron, Mexico, and other producers that might be off the radar.* The lack of exploration spending, and what it means for oil and different subsectors from now until 2030.* Book Recommendation: Apple in China by Patrick McGee & Elon Musk by Walter Isaacson.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Yesterday I had Charles Spadille on the podcast for a fascinating conversation on the state of the US. He has a background as a federal immigration enforcement officer, so we got into immigration and the impact it has had on the US over the last several decades. We also got into the generational divide, the dynamics between men and women, and the coming “Fix It” moment. Anyone who watches Peter R. Quiñones’ Thought Crime Syndicate episodes should be familiar with Charles, but you can find him on Twitter and Telegram (@whiskeyandashes). No man is exempt his zeitgeist. We all grew up in the world we grew up in, for better or for worse or for good or for ill.- Charles SpadillePodcast Summary* The Dignity Act, and why it basically looks like an Amnesty bill.* The demographic changes that have happened across the country over the last several decades.* The number of illegals in the US and chain migration.* The generational divide, why younger generations are frustrated, and why the grass is always greener.* The dynamics between men and women, how making women equal will fix it, and the difference between work and adult daycare jobs.* The changing priorities of younger generations.* The fix it moment, and why it is inevitable.* Why the fix it moment won’t fix a democratic republic and his thoughts on monarchy.* Book Recommendations: How To Win Friends And Influence People by Dale Carnegie, No More Mr. Nice Guy by Robert Glover & Man’s Search For Meaning by Viktor Frankl. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comI have been getting some questions and had a couple of conversations over the weekend on Sable Offshore’s $SOC court hearing on Friday. I briefly touched on the other cases (the CCC and the Permit Transfer), but laid out the importance of the Consent Decree and CEQA in the EDC/CBD case. I also shared some thoughts on why Geck might be trying to thread the needle with the injunction AND the caveat that the OSFM can sign off and Sable can produce after 10 days. My rough estimate for full operations is mid-August, give or take a couple weeks, but the other side is all but guaranteed to play whatever cards they have left. I wrapped up talking about why the next two weeks could give shorts time to exit, and quick thoughts on the options chain, and why some investors are still underestimating fair value. The short term will almost certainly continue to be volatile, but we have some clarity on what the next 4-6 weeks holds as far as jumping through regulatory and legal hoops for Sable.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

On Tuesday I had Vince Lanci back on the podcast to cover about recent events, precious metals, energy, and geopolitics. We talked about the return of mercantilism, mineral wars, other big picture topics, and how they feed into financial markets and commodities. You should all follow his Substack below for his updates on precious metals, but you can also find him on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The trend of deglobalization, and why America needs to become more self-sufficient in manufacturing. * Why platinum has been on the move recently, and why it will take some time to digest the rally over the last couple months. * Chinese demand for platinum, the ties to palladium, and the fundamental changes in the market for platinum.* A couple bold proclamations about a big move coming in silver.* Why gold will drag other commodities higher in coming years.* Big banks favoring gold and copper over silver.* The geopolitical crosscurrents in oil, and the recent media frenzy on the Strait of Hormuz.* Why they wouldn’t close the Strait of Hormuz unless Israel targeted Kharg Island.* The ties between bitcoin and the Treasury market, and the Machiavellian system being built to sell treasuries. * Book Recommendation: Street Smarts by Linda Raschke.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comOver the weekend I had several interesting conversations with investors about Sable’s hearing on Friday this week, so I wanted to share some of those thoughts briefly. I also talked about precious metals, including platinum. Offshore oil services and coal stocks have also been moving lately, so I weighed in on those as well. Both sectors are still very cheap today.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

This is Part 2 of my discussion on Monday with Clay Martin and E.M. Burlingame. This one covers some of the differences between men and women, how to fix the so-called gender divide, and some of the changes that might be on the horizon in coming years. We also got into the future for the US, why the best years could be ahead of us, and how a tax revolt could be a (more) peaceful revolution. If you haven’t had the chance to watch Part 1, I would go watch that first. Podcast Summary* The differences between men and women, and how society has changed the roles of each over the last 200 years. * The health impacts of birth control on both men and women. * Why the birth control pill should be illegal, and why it would fix several problems quickly.* The massive gap between what is right and what is legal.* How the agenda from the media impacts men and women.* Why the relationship between men and women could be fixed quickly after some changes.* Why the best years for the US could be ahead of us, after a messy decade to come. * How a tax revolt could play out, and why it could be the most peaceful path from here. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

On Monday, I recorded my first in-person podcast with Clay Martin and E.M. Burlingame. E.M. was kind enough to host, and it was a long and fascinating conversation. Clay Martin is a former Recon Marine and Green Beret, and he has also become a prolific author over the last several years. You can find his books on Amazon, and he’s also a very entertaining follow on Twitter. We decided to break the podcast into two parts, so Part 2 will be up tomorrow morning. In Part 1, we covered a bunch of topics, from the recent Epstein circus to all of the other rabbit holes we have been down over the last several years. In Part 2, we get around to solving the rest of the world’s problems. Podcast Summary* The Epstein files circus, and blackmail being one time use. * The health rabbit hole, covering the jab, to fluoride in the water, genetically modified food, seed oils, and everything in between.* The dying mainstream media, the propaganda of the regime, and how Substack and social media will be the new battleground for the information war.* Artificial intelligence (language learning models), some of the flaws that are built into the system. * The state of the economy and financial markets, and how demographics and economics drive things. * The knowledge transfer from the Boomer generation. * Student loans as the largest asset of the government and not being able to default on student debt. * Potential changes in government, and if (when) the US will get a Caesar figure. * The state of military technology and how things develop on that front. * Building businesses outside of the financial market liquidity bubble, and what probably happens to the banking system and financial markets over the next decade.* The demographic state of the US, immigration, and how NGOs and other groups fuel the tension on social media.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.kontrariankorner.comOn Friday I had John Polomny back on the podcast, and this time we got into some of the individual names he likes in several different sectors. We talked about oil, uranium, and other commodities, but we also got into several other things that fly under the radar in other markets around the world. At the end of the podcast, I was able to get John going on the state of the world as far as geopolitics and current events. It was fun to go back and forth with him, because the political section of his weekly updates are my favorite part. You can find John on Substack below, and on Twitter.Podcast Summary* The lousy sentiment in oil, and where he is positioned for what he sees coming over the next several years. * We talked a bit about some of the Canadian energy names and their long lived assets, and why he thinks the Canadian energy sector will continue to consolidate. * Opportunities in offshore oil services outside of the main offshore drillers.* Going past peak ESG, the bottlenecks in uranium, a couple different ideas he’s looking at in that sector, and why that sector is ripe for consolidation as well.* The role of gold in the financial end game and a couple mining companies he likes.* Why he thinks it’s an interesting time to start looking at some of the juniors, as well as some opportunities in the royalty sector.* Why silver, platinum, and palladium are going to play catch up to gold.* The financialized economy, the underinvestment in the commodities sector, and his view on gold to oil.* His thoughts on coal, copper, and tin.* Why he’s starting to look into agricultural and fertilizer stocks. * Other places he sees value, like South America, European banks and other obscure ideas in Europe, and under the radar opportunities in China and Hong Kong.* We also went back and forth at the end on geopolitics, US politics, and the state of the world, and why he expects more chaos and volatility around the world over the next several years.* Note: we recorded on Friday, before the US hit three Iranian nuclear sites yesterday. * Book Recommendation: Shareholder Yield by Meb Faber.Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.