Insight is Capital™ Podcast

As Iran targets oil infrastructure with missiles, Wall Street is still buying the dip — but DoubleLine's Jeffrey Sherman says this time, the trade that's worked every time may finally be broken.EPISODE SUMMARYWith oil prices surging, rate-cut expectations evaporating, and a conflict now entering its fourth week, host Pierre Daillie sits down with Jeffrey Sherman, Deputy CIO of DoubleLine Capital, to interrogate the assumptions underlying today's risk portfolios. Sherman maps the transmission channels from Middle East conflict to Main Street purchasing power, dissects what the bond market is — and isn't — signalling about fiscal sustainability, and raises uncomfortable questions about the liquidity architecture of private credit vehicles that investors may not have asked themselves yet. The conversation spans the K-shaped labour market, the rotation into international and emerging market assets, and where Sherman sees the most defensible risk-adjusted opportunities in fixed income right now — without pretending the answers are simple. 3 KEY TAKEAWAYS • The Iran conflict is structurally different from a tariff shock — war policy does not reverse on equity market pressure, making the "buy-every-dip" playbook potentially dangerous for the first time in years. • Semi-liquid private credit vehicles carry a hidden contagion risk: when investors can't redeem, they sell public assets instead — a dynamic Sherman calls "the margin vortex" — and that forced selling can spiral back to reprice the illiquid positions that started the problem. • In this environment, Sherman favours short-duration high-quality credit, agency and non-agency mortgages, and emerging market local currency bonds as the preferred expression of the de-dollarisation and commodity tailwind trade. TIMESTAMPED CHAPTERS00:00 - Opening — overweight US risk and what to do about it 01:30 - Introduction: recording amid active conflict, March 20, 2026 03:15 - War as an inflationary event — oil, distillates, and the infrastructure damage timeline 06:00 - Higher oil for longer: the "transitory" shock that stays at the new price level 08:00 - Growth curtailment, the deficit, and what the bond market is actually pricing 11:25 - Why this is not a TACO trade — the limits of policy reversal in wartime 13:50 - K-shaped economy: labour market confusion, the no-fire/no-hire dynamic, and wage data 19:35 - Three regressive shocks hitting lower-income households: inflation, tariffs, oil 20:10 - Credit spreads: IG, high yield, and the triple-C divergence 23:30 - International equities, the commodity rotation, gold, and EM local currency bonds 30:15 - DoubleLine's portfolio positioning and the case for diversification right now 34:20 - Private credit: the slow motion train wreck, gating mechanisms, and the margin vortex 45:40 - The liquidity mismatch problem — why "semi-liquid" is a contradiction in terms 49:05 - Specific fixed income opportunities: mortgages, CLOs, IG, and leveraged loan avoidance 52:45 - Practical playbook for advisors: portfolio tilts, hedges, and what to explicitly avoid #FixedIncome #BondMarket #DoubleLine #MacroInvesting #PrivateCredit #OilPrices #PortfolioStrategy #EmergingMarkets #GoldInvesting #InterestRates #CreditMarkets #InvestingIn2026 #WealthManagement #FinancePodcast #InsightIsCapital #GeopoliticalRisk #JeffreySherman #TACOTrade #HighYield #Deflation

The bond market — not equities — is the most fragile and most misunderstood foundation of your entire portfolio, and most investors have no idea what's coming. Episode SummaryPierre Daillie and Mike Philbrick sit down with Alfonso Peccatiello — former ING bond portfolio manager of $20 billion and founder of macro hedge fund Palinuro Capital — for a masterclass in navigating a world where the old rules no longer apply.With decades of disinflation now behind us, Alfonso makes the case that the classic 60/40 portfolio is structurally ill-equipped for today's macro regime. Drawing from his own eight-quadrant savings portfolio model, he walks through how investors should think about building resilient, all-weather portfolios using risk parity principles, leverage as a diversification tool, and a mix of equities, bonds, gold, CTAs, and the U.S. dollar.The conversation shifts to the current geopolitical shock — a potential disruption in global oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz — and why taking directional risk in a nonlinear, unpredictable event is closer to gambling than investing. Alfonso closes with a bold macro outlook: the most underappreciated story of the next year may not be the U.S. at all, but the rest of the world.3 Key Takeaways• The 60/40 Is Structurally Broken.The 40-year disinflationary tailwind that made bonds a reliable hedge for equities is over. In today's high-debt, inflation-prone environment, stocks and bonds can fall together — as 2022 proved — making traditional portfolio construction dangerously inadequate.• Leverage Is a Defense, Not a Weapon.Alfonso's eight-quadrant framework uses leverage not to chase returns, but to free up capital for genuine diversifiers: gold, CTAs, macro hedge funds, and long USD exposure — each sized to contribute equal units of risk across inflation, deleveraging, and growth scenarios.• When You Can't Predict the Variable, Don't Take the Risk.In a geopolitical supply shock like a Strait of Hormuz closure, no amount of macro skill gives you an edge. The honest answer is to reduce risk, not gamble on a nonlinear binary outcome — a lesson most active managers ignore.⏱️ Timestamped Chapters00:00 Intro: Why the macro regime has shifted00:56 Decades of debt, fiscal dominance & bond market fragility15:15 Welcome Alfonso Peccatiello / Palinuro Capital17:00 The eight-quadrant portfolio model explained22:21 Are Treasuries actually fragile?33:50 Using leverage defensively to unlock diversification36:40 Building blocks: equities, bonds, and positive drift38:29 Protecting against inflation: gold, commodities & CTAs40:28 Protecting against deleveraging: the U.S. dollar's hidden role43:28 Correlation math: why uncorrelated assets reduce total risk45:24 How to size gold, bonds, and carry in a real portfolio50:53 Tracking error: the behavioral trap that kills diversification56:12 The savings portfolio: risk parity in practice58:00 The 4% rule, path dependency & why drawdown size matters1:00:06 Current positioning: geopolitical oil shock & the Strait of Hormuz1:08:16 The most crowded trade in the world right now1:10:20 What will surprise markets most in the next 12 months?1:12:24 Closing thoughts & farewell#MacroInvesting #PortfolioConstruction #BondMarket #RiskParity #AlphonsoPeccatiello #GlobalMacro #Inflation #60_40Portfolio #GoldInvesting #CTAStrategy #FiscalDominance #GeopoliticalRisk #InvestingStrategy #WealthManagement #RaiseYourAverage #FinancialAdvisor #AssetAllocation #RetirementPlanning #MacroHedgeFund #InvestingIn2025

Is U.S. market dominance about to break? In this episode of Insight is Capital, Pierre Daillie sits down with Cole Smead (CEO & Portfolio Manager, Smead Capital Management) to unpack why today’s market may be less about valuations—and more about a powerful capital cycle that could reshape global investing.From AI-driven CapEx booms to the hidden risks of passive investing, Smead draws on historical parallels—from railroads to telecom to fracking—to explain why investors often miss the biggest regime shifts… and why the next decade of returns may look very different from the last.This conversation explores the case for international equities, the structural setup for commodities, and why Canadian oil could play a critical role in portfolios as capital flows begin to rebalance globally.If you think diversification still means owning the S&P 500… this episode may change your perspective.🔑 What You’ll Learn:• Why U.S. equity dominance may be nearing an inflection point • How capital cycles—not narratives—drive long-term returns • The hidden risks inside passive indexing and concentrated markets • Why AI and massive CapEx may not benefit investors the way you expect • The emerging opportunity in international equities and Canadian energy⏱️ Chapters:00:00 – The problem with U.S. market concentration01:00 – Capital cycles vs valuation cycles03:00 – Lessons from past market manias05:00 – Why investors often lose in innovation booms07:00 – Passive investing under pressure10:00 – Oil markets and historical analogies13:00 – Behavioral investing mistakes18:00 – The SaaS reset and return on capital24:00 – Investment discipline and opportunity28:00 – Great companies vs great stocks30:00 – AI CapEx and unintended consequences34:00 – Who really benefits from innovation cycles37:00 – Telecom bust lessons for today40:00 – Falling tech costs and the Jevons Paradox44:00 – Global capital rotation begins?48:00 – Index risks and market dispersion51:00 – Commodities and the U.S. dollar outlook56:00 – From “mythos” to “logos” in investingAbout our guest:Cole Smead is CEO and Portfolio Manager at Smead Capital Management, known for his long-term, contrarian approach to value investing and deep research into market cycles and investor behavior.📈 About the Show:Insight is Capital™ explores the ideas, strategies, and perspectives shaping the future of investing—helping advisors and investors think better before capital compounds.👍 Like, Subscribe & Share If you found this valuable, support the channel by liking the video, subscribing, and sharing with other investors.#Investing #StockMarket #ValueInvesting #Macro #Commodities #OilAndGas #AI #GlobalMarkets #PassiveInvesting #ActiveInvesting

While everyone is arguing about AI disrupting software stocks, WisdomTree's Jeremy Schwartz and Jeff Weniger quietly explain why the most important market story of 2026 has nothing to do with the SaaS selloff — and everything to do with where capital is actually moving.WisdomTree Global CIO Jeremy Schwartz and Head of Equity Strategy Jeff Weniger join Pierre Daillie and Mike Philbrick on Raise Your Average to cut through the noise of the AI disruption panic and make the case for a broader, more structural story unfolding in global markets. From the defense tech supercycle reshaping international equity allocations, to the gold gap most North American portfolios haven't fixed, to a contrarian call on the US dollar at a moment of record-extreme bearish positioning — this conversation covers the ideas that matter most for advisors and investors navigating 2026. Japan, small caps, monetary policy lag, and the behavioral biases keeping investors anchored to a 15-year-old playbook all come into the discussion. If you manage money for clients — or your own — this episode is essential listening.CHAPTERS00:00 — Introduction & what's happening in markets right now08:16 — Guests join: Jeremy Schwartz & Jeff Weniger on the SaaSpocalypse10:27 — Is the AI disruption panic overblown? The BlackBerry parallel16:09 — Rotation: structural shift or head fake?19:35 — AI, jobs, and the history of innovation28:09 — Who actually benefits from the AI buildout?31:50 — The 15-year mega-cap tech bull market is ending — here's what's next32:39 — Jeremy Schwartz introduces the defense tech supercycle35:36 — The dollar: why Weniger is a contrarian bull right now40:30 — Gold: the 10–12% neutral allocation most portfolios are missing44:29 — Why the gold-dollar relationship has changed46:34 — Bitcoin liquidation and the case for gold & silver in 202648:06 — The gold gap: US investors vs. European investors51:14 — International flows: the 80/20 problem and how to fix it55:53 — Japan: the most underowned trade of the decade57:07 — Currency hedging, volatility, and the case for DXJ01:01:45 — Is US mega-cap dominance cracking or just pausing?01:04:16 — The biggest mistake advisors make translating macro into allocation01:05:26 — The Fed lag effect: why 2026 may surprise to the upside01:14:02 — Japan deep dive: debt-to-GDP, Buffett's trade, and OPPJ01:20:41 — Jeremy's top idea: the Japan Opportunities Fund (OPPJ)01:26:28 — Jeff's top idea: the contrarian dollar trade and small caps01:30:37 — Market internals: why most portfolios are actually in the black01:35:14 — What surprises advisors most in the next 12 months?01:39:22 — Uncertainty vs. actual losses — the disconnect in 202601:40:27 — Closing thoughts & thank you5 KEY TAKEAWAYS1. The broad market is healthier than the headlines suggest. Ten of eleven S&P sectors were positive over the prior three months. Mid and small caps were outperforming large by 500–700 basis points. Most diversified portfolios were in the black — the pain is concentrated in software and AI-disruption names, not the market as a whole.2. The defense tech supercycle is the structural story most advisors are missing. Rising defense budgets across NATO, Japan, Korea, and India are the seed capital for the next generation of global technology — just as DARPA spending gave us the internet and the cell phone. Europe and Japan are becoming technology investment destinations in their own right.3. Gold belongs at 10–12% in a neutral portfolio — and almost no one is there. US investors allocate less than 2% of ETF assets to commodities versus four to five times that in Europe. Falling yields, Bitcoin liquidation flows, and persistent central bank buying from Asia make 2026 one of the strongest setups for gold in years.4. Dollar bearishness has reached historically extreme levels — a classic contrarian signal. BofA's Fund Manager Survey showed record negative dollar positioning. Every major economy is now running large deficits, weakening the relative case for selling dollars. Weniger's best idea for the next 12 months: the greenback surprises to the upside.5. Japan remains the most underowned and underappreciated equity market in the world. Currency-hedged Japanese equities have compounded at 14–15% annually since 2012, driven by real earnings and dividend growth — not multiple expansion. Japanese equities trade at 15–16x earnings with competitive earnings growth. The biggest mistake: betting on the yen rather than hedging it. #WisdomTree #RaiseYourAverage #GlobalMacro #InternationalStocks #JapanEquities #GoldInvesting #DefenseTech #MarketRotation #PortfolioStrategy #AssetAllocation #AIInvesting #SmallCaps #CurrencyHedging #InvestingIn2026 #FinancialAdvisors

What if the greatest risk in your portfolio right now isn't owning too much AI — it's catastrophically underestimating what's actually happening?SummaryMost investors are asking the wrong question.The debate dominating markets right now — AI bubble or generational opportunity? — sounds sophisticated. But Pierre Daillie's conversation with Dan White, Associate Portfolio Manager at ARK Invest, suggests the real question is far more unsettling: what if the investors playing defence are the ones taking on the most risk?White works directly alongside Cathie Wood, sitting horizontally across ARK's research teams to translate disruptive innovation research into portfolio strategy. He's watched the current AI moment unfold from the inside — across public markets, private venture, and the day-to-day behaviour of a research team that is itself being transformed by the very technologies they cover.In this episode, they go deep on the comparisons to 1999, the so-called SaaS Apocalypse, the $600 billion CapEx question, and the thesis ARK calls the Great Acceleration. What they uncover challenges just about every instinct the cautious investor has right now — about valuation, about risk, and about which side of this moment history will judge as the costly mistake.The data White brings to the table is striking. The framework ARK uses to identify true investment platforms is specific and testable. And the thesis risks he's willing to name out loud — including the scenarios that would genuinely break the bull case — are more concrete than most bears expect.If you've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for clarity, this conversation may reframe what clarity actually looks like.🔑 3 Key Takeaways1. The 1999 Comparison Has One Fatal FlawThe surface-level similarities are real — but one critical data point separates this moment from the dot-com era entirely. White spells it out with precision.2. AI Is Not the Theme — It's the EngineARK's Great Acceleration thesis rests on a specific, testable framework. The five platforms AI is simultaneously accelerating are not equally understood by the market — and that gap is where ARK sees its edge.3. The Risk Most Portfolios Aren't PricingOver-exposure to innovation dominates the risk conversation. White flips it. His case for why the asymmetric danger may run in the opposite direction is one of the sharpest arguments in this episode.⏱ Chapters00:00 — The Setup: Bubble or Structural Shift? 02:00 — Dan White's Role at ARK Invest 03:00 — The SaaS Apocalypse Explained 06:00 — Where the 1999 Comparison Holds 08:00 — Where It Completely Falls Apart 10:00 — The Revenue Numbers Behind the Headlines 15:00 — Is the CapEx Build Sustainable? 20:00 — Claude Code and the Coming Demand Wave 22:00 — The Great Acceleration: Five Platforms, One Catalyst 28:00 — $600B CapEx: Who Actually Benefits? 29:00 — What Would Break ARK's Thesis? 34:00 — Energy, Power & Elon's Space Compute Play 37:00 — The Underinvestment Risk Argument 41:00 — Core-and-Satellite: A Framework for Investors 43:00 — Real-World AI in Action 47:00 — Closing #ARKInvest #AIInvesting #GreatAcceleration #DisruptiveInnovation #CathieWood #AIStocks2026 #ClaudeCode #Anthropic #Palantir #TeslaFSD #AIRevolution #TechInvesting #GrowthInvesting #InnovationEconomy #AIProductivity #SaaSDisruption #InvestmentStrategy #Robotics #EnergyStorage #SpaceX #TokenEconomy #WrightsLaw #AICapEx #GPUShortage #PortfolioManagement #FinancePodcast #InsightIsCapital #ActiveManagement #FutureOfAI #AIStocks Copyright © AdvisorAnalyst.com

If institutional investors have already shifted toward global diversification and private markets, why are most retail portfolios still stuck in the past?In this episode of Insight Is Capital, host Pierre Daillie sits down with Clay Khan, Head of Canada and Managing Director at Neuberger Berman, to explore one of the biggest structural changes in modern portfolio construction: the migration of capital from public markets toward private assets and globally diversified strategies.Drawing from Neuberger Berman’s “Solving for 2026” investment outlook, Khan explains how global macro forces—AI-driven productivity shifts, diverging fiscal and monetary policies, and evolving capital markets—are reshaping the investment landscape for both institutions and private investors. The conversation dives into the growing dominance of private equity and private credit, why institutional portfolios increasingly resemble pension-style allocations, and why Canadian investors may need to rethink traditional 60/40 portfolio structures.Khan also highlights emerging strategies gaining traction among sophisticated investors, including tax-loss harvesting, direct indexing, evergreen private market structures, and secondary markets in private equity. These innovations are gradually bringing institutional-grade investment strategies into the portfolios of high-net-worth investors and advisors.Ultimately, the discussion centers on a crucial shift: moving from wealth accumulation toward wealth preservation and tax-efficient diversification, particularly for families transitioning from concentrated entrepreneurial wealth into multi-generational portfolios.3 Key Takeaways1️⃣ Institutional portfolios are leading the shift toward private marketsCanadian pension plans have steadily migrated capital from public markets toward private equity, infrastructure, real estate, and private credit in pursuit of the illiquidity premium and smoother return profiles. 2️⃣ Global diversification is finally broadening beyond the U.S.While the S&P 500 has dominated recent years, Khan notes that EAFE and emerging markets recently outperformed, highlighting the growing case for international diversification in advisor portfolios. 3️⃣ Tax efficiency may be the next frontier in portfolio constructionHigh-net-worth investors are increasingly adopting tax-loss harvesting and direct indexing strategies to generate “tax alpha,” potentially adding meaningful after-tax returns over time. ⏱️ Timestamped Chapters00:00 – Introduction: Markets entering a new macro regime 01:07 – What Neuberger Berman’s “Solving for 2026” outlook is signaling 01:27 – Clay Khan’s background and Neuberger Berman’s Canadian business 02:20 – Market shifts in early 2026 and global equity rotations 03:28 – Value vs growth and international outperformance 05:28 – Why institutional and retail portfolios look so different 06:46 – How Canadian pensions moved from public to private markets 10:02 – Why private credit is replacing hedge funds in portfolios 12:43 – The shrinking public market and expanding private economy 15:03 – The challenge of implementing alternatives in retail portfolios 18:35 – How family offices approach long-term investing 20:45 – Tax-loss harvesting and the rise of “tax alpha” 24:39 – Institutional investing philosophy: global diversification 26:09 – Why private companies may outperform public markets 28:13 – Solving liquidity challenges in private markets 29:34 – The booming private equity secondary market 31:59 – A real estate analogy for understanding private equity 34:34 – Where advisors are reallocating portfolios today 37:32 – The challenge of replacing fixed income diversification 39:46 – Lessons from Canadian pension portfolio construction 41:34 – How portfolio conversations have evolved over the last decade 45:05 – Evergreen private market structures 45:13 – What will define the next phase of Canadian portfolio construction 46:33 – Concentration vs diversification in wealth preservation 49:25 – The psychology of entrepreneurial wealth 51:19 – Final reflections on diversification and legacy planning#PrivateMarkets#PrivateEquity#PrivateCredit#PortfolioStrategy#WealthManagement#InstitutionalInvesting#AlternativeInvestments#CanadianInvesting#GlobalDiversification#TaxLossHarvesting#FamilyOffice#InvestmentStrategy#AdvisorInsights#InsightIsCapital#NeubergerBerman

AI isn’t just about Nvidia anymore — it’s quietly rewiring the entire industrial economy, and most investors don’t even realize where the real money will be made.In this episode of Raise Your Average, hosts Pierre Daillie and Mike Philbrick sit down with Ivana Delevska, Founder and CIO of Spear Advisors, to unpack how AI is splitting the market — creating massive dispersion between winners and losers — and why passive index exposure may no longer be enough.While most investors believe they’re diversified through Nasdaq or S&P 500 index funds, Delevska explains that passive exposure is heavily concentrated in mega-cap hyperscalers. The real opportunity, she argues, lies deeper in the AI value chain — in networking, optical components, semiconductor capital equipment, electrification, cybersecurity infrastructure, and even space.This conversation goes beyond the hype cycle. Delevska outlines why AI CapEx — projected to reach $600B this year — is fundamentally different from past tech cycles. The sheer dollar magnitude is forcing multi-year infrastructure buildouts, creating 10-year visibility rather than the traditional 3–5 year tech cycle. Yet while hardware beneficiaries remain durable, SaaS and application-layer companies face real disruption risk as AI-native competitors rapidly reshape the software landscape.For investors, this isn’t about abandoning mega-cap tech — it’s about understanding dispersion. In an AI-driven world, alpha will increasingly come from identifying where capital is flowing, how physical constraints shape adoption, and which companies sit at the most critical points in the industrial tech stack.🔑 3 Key Takeaways1️⃣ Passive Exposure Isn’t True AI DiversificationOwning the Nasdaq or S&P 500 mostly means owning hyperscalers. The broader AI opportunity extends into semiconductor equipment, optical networking, power infrastructure, cybersecurity, and industrial tech — areas largely underrepresented in passive indices.2️⃣ AI CapEx Is Structurally Different This TimeWith hyperscalers spending ~$600B annually, the infrastructure buildout has 10-year visibility due to land, power, and supply constraints. This isn’t a short tech cycle — it’s a physical industrial transformation.3️⃣ Massive Dispersion = Massive Alpha PotentialAI will create both winners and losers. Hardware suppliers and infrastructure players may benefit from durable demand, while legacy SaaS and application companies risk disruption. Stock selection and disciplined process matter more than ever.⏱️ Timestamped Chapters00:00 – Introduction & Why This Conversation Matters02:00 – $600B in AI CapEx: Where Is the Money Going?04:00 – Why Industrial Tech Was Underinvested for 15 Years07:00 – The Myth of Diversification in Passive AI Exposure12:00 – Networking, Optical, Semi Cap Equipment: Hidden Winners16:00 – SaaS Under Pressure: AI Disruption in Software19:00 – Spear’s Mental Model for Navigating the AI Stack22:00 – Space, Electrification & Defense as AI Enablers31:00 – The Physical World Bottleneck: S-Curves vs J-Curves33:00 – Dispersion, Alpha & Why Active Management Matters48:00 – Behavioral Mistakes Investors Make in Tech Cycles51:00 – What Could Break the AI Thesis?54:00 – Closing Thoughts & SPEAR ETF (SPRX) #AIInvesting #ArtificialIntelligence #StockMarket #TechStocks #Semiconductors #IndustrialTech #Cybersecurity #DataCenters #ActiveManagement #ETFInvesting #GrowthStocks #SPRX #LongTermInvesting #InvestmentStrategy #RaiseYourAverageCopyright © AdvisorAnalyst.com

When equity markets grow concentrated and expensive, the real risk isn’t volatility — it’s failing to diversify before the cycle turns. For years, global real estate has sat in what Pierre Daillie calls “the penalty box” — weighed down by rising rates, skepticism, and falling valuations. Yet beneath the headlines, fundamentals never broke. In this episode of Insight Is Capital, Pierre sits down with Dennis Mitchell, CEO and CIO of Starlight Capital, to unpack why global real estate may be one of the most misunderstood — and potentially asymmetric — opportunities in today’s market. Mitchell argues that the most important change in global real estate “has nothing to do with global real estate.” Instead, it’s about opportunity cost. With the S&P 500 trading north of 24x earnings and the “Mag 7” representing more than 30% of the index, investors face rising concentration risk — amplified by passive flows. Meanwhile, publicly traded REITs in North America have traded at discounts of up to 30% to net asset value, even as supply-demand fundamentals strengthen across key sectors like seniors housing, data centers, industrial, and cell towers. Mitchell breaks down real estate returns into three drivers — yield, growth, and multiple expansion — and explains why today’s combination of 4–6% yields, 3–7% internal growth, and potential mean reversion creates a compelling setup. From demographic tailwinds in seniors housing to AI-driven infrastructure demand for data centers and towers, this conversation reframes real estate not as a rate-sensitive trade — but as a disciplined, supply-demand story hiding in plain sight. 🎯 3 Key Takeaways1️⃣ The Real Estate Story Isn’t About Rates — It’s About Opportunity CostWith equity multiples elevated and passive concentration at historic highs, the opportunity cost of not diversifying into real estate has increased materially.Concentration + passive flows + stretched multiples = asymmetric portfolio risk.2️⃣ Fundamentals Are Strong Where Supply Is ConstrainedAcross sectors like seniors housing, industrial, data centers, and towers, resilient demand meets limited supply.In Canada alone, for example, vis-à-vis seniors housing:The 70+ population is set to double by 2035~200,000 additional seniors housing units will be neededNo decade has delivered more than 73,000 unitsThat gap matters.3️⃣ Real Estate Offers a Three-Engine Return Profile Mitchell outlines three sources of return: Add it together, and real estate may offer predictable double-digit total return potential — with diversification benefits.⏱️ Timestamped Chapters02:30 – Volatility, geopolitics, and the reality of today’s markets 03:38 – S&P 500 concentration risk & passive investing concerns 07:58 – Interest rates vs. supply and demand fundamentals 10:05 – Why seniors housing may have the strongest fundamentals globally 13:17 – Public vs. private markets: pricing inefficiencies and diligence 14:55 – REIT privatizations & valuation gaps 18:34 – The three drivers of real estate returns: yield, growth, multiples 20:52 – AI “picks and shovels”: data centers & cell towers 22:40 – What Dennis is watching in 2026: fund flows & M&A If markets have rewarded concentration for the past decade, this episode asks the harder question:What happens when the cycle shifts — and diversification starts to matter again? #GlobalRealEstate#REITInvesting#Diversification#IncomeInvesting#PortfolioStrategy#PassiveInvestingRisk#SeniorsHousing#DataCenterREIT#AITechnologyInfrastructure#MarketConcentration#StarlightCapital#InvestmentPodcast

If energy is destiny and stockpiles signal intent, then this episode may completely change how you see oil, gold, China, Canada—and your portfolio. In this high-conviction macro deep dive, hosts Pierre Daillie and Mike Philbrick sit down with returning guest Doomberg to dismantle the comfortable narratives investors use to understand energy, geopolitics, and portfolio construction. Doomberg reframes the global order through a resource-first lens: energy is destiny, stockpiles signal intent, and technology is rewriting the rules of commodities. From Venezuela and Guyana to China’s war rations, from shale’s molecular revolution to Saskatchewan’s overlooked strategic wealth, this episode challenges the assumptions underpinning the traditional 60/40 portfolio. If the last 50 years were defined by efficiency, globalization, and financialization, the next regime may be defined by resilience, reshoring, and resource leverage. This is not just a discussion about oil. It’s about power. 🔑 3 Key Takeaways1. Energy Is No Longer “Just Oil” Shale has fundamentally changed hydrocarbon markets. Crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids are co-produced — meaning price signals can no longer be analyzed in isolation. • What CNBC calls “oil” is no longer just crude. Natural gas arbitrage, LNG flows, and AI-driven electricity demand are quietly reshaping global pricing dynamics.2. The World Is Quietly Re-IndustrializingDoomberg argues we are witnessing a regime shift:• Deflationary outsourcing → inflationary reshoring • Strong dollar orthodoxy → weaker dollar tolerance • Efficiency → resilienceTrump’s trade posture, sovereign capital repositioning, gold’s breakout, and private infrastructure flows all point toward one theme: industrial renaissance is attempting to replace financial engineering. Implication: The classic 60/40 portfolio may be structurally underexposed to energy, infrastructure, and real assets. 3. China Is Acting Like a Wartime EconomyChina is stockpiling oil, metals, grains, and gold at unprecedented levels. That behavior can be interpreted two ways:• Defensive hardening • Pre-offensive preparation Either way, the signal is clear: global trade assumptions are shifting toward fragmentation and strategic leverage. Implication: Resource-rich jurisdictions (e.g., Saskatchewan) become strategically relevant in a “might-is-right” world.🕒 Timestamped Chapters00:00 – Introduction: Energy Is Destiny 01:56 – Venezuela, Guyana & Resource-First Thinking 05:08 – Why Markets Misprice Geopolitical Risk 08:07 – Europe’s Deindustrialization Problem 12:06 – Weak Dollar, Gold & the Industrial Pivot 14:30 – Political Constraints & Capital Cycles 20:24 – How to Separate Signal from Propaganda 26:10 – The Molecular Shift in Oil Markets 33:18 – Natural Gas vs Crude: The Arbitrage Story 37:52 – Propane, Engine Switching & Energy Substitution 40:17 – Energy Exposure & the 60/40 Portfolio 46:01 – Why Producers Are Price Takers 48:25 – China’s “War Rations” Strategy 53:29 – Entering a “Might Is Right” Regime 56:03 – Inverting the 50-Year Investment Playbook 01:05:00 – Saskatchewan: Strategic Resource Wealth 01:13:21 – Canada, Culture & Capital Formation Where to find Doomberg - https://doomberg.com

Private markets are quietly being rewritten in real time—and in this conversation, Ash Lawrence explains why AI, private credit, and defence could define who wins and who gets left behind in 2026. In this episode of Insight is Capital, host Pierre Daillie sits down with Ash Lawrence, Head of AGF Capital Partners, to unpack AGF Capital Partners’ 2026 - The Annual - Private Markets Outlook. Against a backdrop of geopolitical volatility, AI acceleration, shifting credit dynamics, and renewed defence spending, Lawrence lays out five structural themes reshaping private equity, private credit, and alternative investments. The conversation explores how allocators can separate signal from noise, manage emerging concentration risks, navigate liquidity mismatches in retail private markets, and position portfolios for a world where traditional assumptions no longer apply. From AI infrastructure and mid-market private credit to defence, security, and the evolving role of private capital in public objectives, this episode offers a clear-eyed, practitioner’s view of where private markets are headed—and what investors need to understand to participate intelligently. 🔑 Three Key Takeaways• AI Is Everywhere—and That’s the Risk AI is no longer a standalone theme; it touches venture, infrastructure, real estate, and operating businesses alike. Investors must assess total portfolio AI exposure and balance direct bets with infrastructure-level participation to avoid unintended concentration risk.• Private Credit’s Sweet Spot Is Moving Down-Market As large-cap sponsor-backed lending becomes crowded and commoditized, opportunity is shifting toward mid- and lower-mid-market private credit, where proprietary deal flow, stronger covenants, and greater repayment optionality can improve risk-adjusted returns.• Defence and Security Are No Longer Niche Rising geopolitical tensions, technology-driven procurement changes, and massive funding needs are opening defence, cybersecurity, and sovereign infrastructure to private capital. The opportunity is real—but manager expertise and risk controls are critical.⏱️ Timestamped Chapters00:00 – Introduction - Private markets, alternatives, and AGF Capital Partners’ 2026 outlook 01:10 – Separating Signal From Noise - Why geopolitical “bogeys” can’t be forecast—and shouldn’t dominate portfolio decisions 04:10 – AI in Private Markets - Thematic concentration risk, infrastructure plays, and portfolio-level exposure 10:33 – Private Credit’s Structural Shift - Why capital is moving toward mid- and lower-mid-market lending 16:11 – The Private Equity Deal-Flow Logjam Rates, valuation gaps, and what it will take to restart transactions 26:32 – Defense & National Security Investing Technology, geopolitics, and the expanding definition of defense 34:51 – Retail Investors & Liquidity Mismatch - Why structure matters—and what the recent redemption suspensions are teaching the market 40:47 – Closing Thoughts - Why 2026 could mark a reset year for private markets  #PrivateMarkets#PrivateEquity#PrivateCredit#AlternativeInvestments#AIInvesting#DefenseInvesting#PortfolioConstruction#CapitalAllocation#InstitutionalInvesting#InsightIsCapital