AI, Defense, and a New Private Markets Playbook with Ash Lawrence

Private markets are quietly being rewritten in real time—and in this conversation, Ash Lawrence explains why AI, private credit, and defence could define who wins and who gets left behind in 2026. In this episode of Insight is Capital, host Pierre Daillie sits down with Ash Lawrence, Head of AGF Capital Partners, to unpack AGF Capital Partners’ 2026 - The Annual - Private Markets Outlook. Against a backdrop of geopolitical volatility, AI acceleration, shifting credit dynamics, and renewed defence spending, Lawrence lays out five structural themes reshaping private equity, private credit, and alternative investments. The conversation explores how allocators can separate signal from noise, manage emerging concentration risks, navigate liquidity mismatches in retail private markets, and position portfolios for a world where traditional assumptions no longer apply. From AI infrastructure and mid-market private credit to defence, security, and the evolving role of private capital in public objectives, this episode offers a clear-eyed, practitioner’s view of where private markets are headed—and what investors need to understand to participate intelligently. 🔑 Three Key Takeaways

• AI Is Everywhere—and That’s the Risk AI is no longer a standalone theme; it touches venture, infrastructure, real estate, and operating businesses alike. Investors must assess total portfolio AI exposure and balance direct bets with infrastructure-level participation to avoid unintended concentration risk.

• Private Credit’s Sweet Spot Is Moving Down-Market As large-cap sponsor-backed lending becomes crowded and commoditized, opportunity is shifting toward mid- and lower-mid-market private credit, where proprietary deal flow, stronger covenants, and greater repayment optionality can improve risk-adjusted returns.

• Defence and Security Are No Longer Niche Rising geopolitical tensions, technology-driven procurement changes, and massive funding needs are opening defence, cybersecurity, and sovereign infrastructure to private capital. The opportunity is real—but manager expertise and risk controls are critical.

⏱️ Timestamped Chapters

00:00 – Introduction - Private markets, alternatives, and AGF Capital Partners’ 2026 outlook

01:10 – Separating Signal From Noise - Why geopolitical “bogeys” can’t be forecast—and shouldn’t dominate portfolio decisions

04:10 – AI in Private Markets - Thematic concentration risk, infrastructure plays, and portfolio-level exposure

10:33 – Private Credit’s Structural Shift - Why capital is moving toward mid- and lower-mid-market lending

16:11 – The Private Equity Deal-Flow Logjam Rates, valuation gaps, and what it will take to restart transactions

26:32 – Defense & National Security Investing Technology, geopolitics, and the expanding definition of defense

34:51 – Retail Investors & Liquidity Mismatch - Why structure matters—and what the recent redemption suspensions are teaching the market

40:47 – Closing Thoughts - Why 2026 could mark a reset year for private markets

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