WashingtonWise

The war in Iran has created uncertainty in both the equity markets and the bond markets, as even the Federal Reserve acknowledged in its recent decision to hold interest rates steady. In this episode of WashingtonWise, Collin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy at Charles Schwab, joins host Mike Townsend to discuss how fixed income investors can navigate the unusual volatility in the bond market. Collin shares his perspective on next steps for the Fed, whether bonds are still the safe haven investors perceive them to be, and the war’s implications for the U.S. dollar. He dives into the potential for elevated Treasury yields due to changing patterns in bond market ownership and looks at how the private credit markets have been roiled by growing investor concerns. And he provides his thoughts on what investors looking to help protect their portfolios should be focusing on in the bond market. Mike also provides the latest on key issues in Washington, including the looming fight on Capitol Hill over additional funding for the war effort, the ongoing shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security, and the White House issuing a plan for regulating artificial intelligence.  WashingtonWise is an original podcast for investors from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/WashingtonWise. If you enjoy the show, please leave a ★★★★★ rating or review on Apple Podcasts IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES: The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. Bank loans typically have below investment-grade credit ratings and may be subject to more credit risk, including the risk of nonpayment of principal or interest. Most bank loans have floating coupon rates that are tied to short-term reference rates like the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), so substantial increases in interest rates may make it more difficult for issuers to service their debt and cause an increase in loan defaults. A rise in short-term references rates typically result in higher income payments for investors, however. Bank loans are typically secured by collateral posted by the issuer, or guarantees of its affiliates, the value of which may decline and be insufficient to cover repayment of the loan. Many loans are relatively illiquid or are subject to restrictions on resales, have delayed settlement periods, and may be difficult to value. Bank loans are also subject to maturity extension risk and prepayment risk. Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) may be more sensitive to interest rate changes than other fixed income investments. They are subject to extension risk, where borrowers extend the duration of their mortgages as interest rates rise, and prepayment risk, where borrowers pay off their mortgages earlier as interest rates fall. These risks may reduce returns. International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. Currency trading is speculative, very volatile and not suitable for all investors Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses (and/or "transaction fees or other related expenses"), and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see ​schwab.com/indexdefinitions The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. 0326-V8NP Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, offers quick macro and market perspective. He discusses how the Iran conflict is driving wild swings in oil, gas, stocks, and bond yields. He explains shipping and Strait of Hormuz risks, potential consumer and inflation effects from higher fuel costs, sector rotation toward energy, and why reacting to headlines can be dangerous.

Nathan Peterson, Director of Derivatives Research and Strategy at Schwab, offers expertise on options and market strategy. He discusses what AI can do today and where it’s headed. They explore which businesses are being disrupted, risks to jobs and the economy, and how investors might think about AI exposure amid sector rotation.

Daniel Stein, branch manager at Charles Schwab who advises individual investors, discusses market volatility and whether AI is forming a bubble. He examines diversification challenges in a top-heavy market. Daniel covers international allocation, the roles of precious metals and crypto, and disciplined rebalancing and sell decisions.

The barrage of unsettling headlines has investors wondering how to manage their investments amid ongoing changes and disruptions coming from Washington. On this episode of WashingtonWise, Kasey McCurdy, chief portfolio strategist at Schwab Wealth Advisory, joins host Mike Townsend to tackle the turbulent start to the year. Kasey shares insights on how investors can tune out the noise when making investment decisions, even when there are few historical comparisons, and offers strategies for building resilient portfolios amidst uncertainty, both geopolitical and domestic. Mike also provides insights on what's happening in Washington right now, including the risk of a second government shutdown, the latest from the Federal Reserve, and the challenges the White House is facing on affordability issues.WashingtonWise is an original podcast for investors from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/WashingtonWise.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ★★★★★ rating or review on Apple PodcastsIMPORTANT DISCLOSURESThe policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.​Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Diversification, asset allocation and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Rebalancing may cause investors to incur transaction costs and, when a non-retirement account is rebalanced, taxable events may be created that may affect your tax liability.Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets.High-yield securities and unrated securities of similar credit quality (junk bonds) are subject to greater levels of credit and liquidity risks and may be more volatile than higher-rated securitiesPreferred securities are a type of hybrid investment that share characteristics of both stock and bonds. They are often callable, meaning the issuing company may redeem the security at a certain price after a certain date. Such call features, and the timing of a call, may affect the security’s yield. Preferred securities generally have lower credit ratings and a lower claim to assets than the issuer's individual bonds. Like bonds, prices of preferred securities tend to move inversely with interest rates, so their prices may fall during periods of rising interest rates. Investment value will fluctuate, and preferred securities, when sold before maturity, may be worth more or less than original cost. Preferred securities are subject to various other risks including changes in interest rates and credit quality, default risks, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, deferral risk, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.Currency trading is speculative, very volatile and not suitable for all investorsIndexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses (and/or "transaction fees or other related expenses"), and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see ​schwab.com/indexdefinitionsThe Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.The Charles Schwab Corporation provides a full range of brokerage and financial advisory services through its operating subsidiaries. Its broker-dealer subsidiary, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (Member SIPC [link to: https://www.sipc.org/] offers investment services and products, including Schwab brokerage accounts.0126-4SFT  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The discussion dives into how politics and policy will shape markets in 2026. Topics include concerns over Federal Reserve independence and the implications of a DOJ inquiry into its leadership. Geopolitical risks, especially involving Venezuela, are explored alongside key Supreme Court cases that could affect tariffs and Fed appointments. The podcast highlights impending congressional battles over health care, government funding, and cryptocurrency regulation. Insights on regulatory changes and midterm election impacts provide a comprehensive overview for investors.

Affordability is the political buzzword of the moment, contributing to a widening gap between what consumers and investors think about the economy versus how the economy is actually performing. In this episode, Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, joins host Mike Townsend to discuss how affordability, though difficult to define, is shaping consumer sentiment and policy debates, especially as economic data and public perception diverge. Kevin shares his perspective on the softening jobs market, sticky inflation, the accuracy of government data, the deep divisions at the Federal Reserve, and how tariffs will continue to be a major issue for investors to watch. He also discusses his 2026 Market Outlook, highlighting potential opportunities for investors in the coming year even as concerns increase about the sustainability of the bull market. And Mike shares his thoughts on another looming government shutdown deadline, the battle on Capitol Hill over health care subsidies, and why a Republican victory in a recent special election is signaling that Republicans may be in for a rough ride in next year's midterms. Check out Schwab's 2026 Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy.WashingtonWise is an original podcast for investors from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/WashingtonWise.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ★★★★★ rating or review on Apple PodcastsIMPORTANT DISCLOSURESThe policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax, legal, or investment planning advice. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, you should consult with a qualified tax advisor, CPA, Financial Planner, or Investment Manager.Small cap investments are subject to greater volatility than those in other asset categories.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses (and/or "transaction fees or other related expenses"), and cannot be invested in directly.  For more information on indexes, please see ​schwab.com/indexdefinitionsThe Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.1225-KM4Z Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The end of the government shutdown brings fresh challenges for investors, including the looming threat of another shutdown. Economic data delays may complicate the Fed's upcoming decisions on rate cuts. Two crucial Supreme Court cases regarding Trump's tariffs and Fed independence are on the horizon. The rising number of Congressional retirements may signal a changing political landscape as we approach the 2025 elections. Lastly, the halt of penny production raises interesting concerns for retailers and banks.

With the Fed cutting rates and the bull market in stocks continuing its run of more than three years, some investors are wondering whether bonds still play an important role in a portfolio. On this episode, host Mike Townsend and guest Collin Martin, managing director and head of fixed income research and strategy at Schwab, discuss why bonds still matter when it comes to providing stability in a diversified portfolio. Collin shares his perspective on how mortgage-backed securities, international bonds, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) all merit consideration by fixed income investors. They also do a deep dive into the most recent Fed meeting, including how the Fed is navigating the lack of economic data during the government shutdown, how it is wrestling with contradictory pressures from the jobs market and inflation, and the relationship between the fed funds rate and mortgage rates. Mike also provides updates on the government shutdown and how the Supreme Court is poised for a landmark decision on the president's tariff policy.WashingtonWise is an original podcast for investors from Charles Schwab. For more on the series, visit schwab.com/WashingtonWise.If you enjoy the show, please leave a ★★★★★ rating or review on Apple Podcasts.IMPORTANT DISCLOSURESThe policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.​Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate these risks. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks, including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) may be more sensitive to interest rate changes than other fixed income investments. They are subject to extension risk, where borrowers extend the duration of their mortgages as interest rates rise, and prepayment risk, where borrowers pay off their mortgages earlier as interest rates fall. These risks may reduce returns.Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are inflation-linked securities issued by the US Government whose principal value is adjusted periodically in accordance with the rise and fall in the inflation rate. Thus, the dividend amount payable is also impacted by variations in the inflation rate, as it is based upon the principal value of the bond. It may fluctuate up or down. Repayment at maturity is guaranteed by the US Government and may be adjusted for inflation to become the greater of the original face amount at issuance or that face amount plus an adjustment for inflation. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are guaranteed by the US Government, but inflation-protected bond funds do not provide such a guarantee.This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax, legal, or investment planning advice. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, you should consult with a qualified tax advisor, CPA, Financial Planner, or Investment Manager.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses (and/or "transaction fees or other related expenses"), and cannot be invested in directly.  For more information on indexes, please see ​schwab.com/indexdefinitionsCurrency trading is speculative, very volatile and not suitable for all investors.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.1125-6R2W Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Stephanie Shadel, a Senior Wealth Advisor at Charles Schwab, dives into how investors can manage emotions during turbulent markets. She offers strategies for rebalancing portfolios and reviewing cash versus bond allocations. Stephanie tackles the fear of missing out and emphasizes focusing on fundamentals. The discussion covers evolving tax and charitable giving strategies in light of recent legislation. She also provides a practical year-end checklist, ensuring listeners are prepared for smart financial moves before the year's end.