Michael Gapen

Robert Armstrong, Financial Times commentator and Unhedged writer, joins Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. economist, for a sharp look at the Fed’s latest move. They dig into sticky inflation, Iran-driven oil shocks, pricier household bills, stagflation risks, and why the economy can look solid while many people still feel squeezed.

Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Economist, on Fed policy, inflation dynamics, and the dollar’s moves. Gil Luria, DA Davidson’s Head of Technology Research, on Microsoft and Meta earnings, AI exposure, ad growth, and tech valuations. Multiple short conversations cover Fed strategy, currency swings, cloud and AI trends, and who stands to benefit from near-term AI profits.

Jens Eisenschmidt, Morgan Stanley’s Europe chief, discusses uneven euro‑area growth and German fiscal levers. Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley’s Asia chief, focuses on China’s deflation risks, RMB policy and export‑led recovery. Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley’s U.S. chief, covers consumer spending, AI‑led CapEx and how investment and tariffs shape growth.

Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, shares insights on the U.S. growth outlook and inflation dynamics, predicting modest growth but cautioning against over-reliance on AI-driven expansion. Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist, discusses Japan's macro outlook and how currency fluctuations could force the Bank of Japan to adjust its policies. Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe Economist, analyzes upcoming inflation data in the eurozone and argues that wage disinflation could lead to European Central Bank rate cuts as early as this year.

Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, dives into the Fed's future actions amidst inflation concerns and a slowing economy. He argues the Fed will hold rates steady initially but will eventually cut more than expected due to factors like tariffs impacting consumer spending. Gapen discusses how increasing oil prices could influence inflation rates and how these dynamics might affect treasury yields and the U.S. dollar. His insights reveal a complex interaction of policies and international events shaping market expectations.

Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, shares expert insights on the implications of Chair Powell's remarks from the Jackson Hole meeting. He discusses the Fed’s shift toward a more cautious monetary policy, emphasizing the delicate balance between managing inflation and supporting employment. Gapen highlights the potential for gradual interest rate adjustments, considering the uncertainty of economic conditions and recession risks. His in-depth analysis underscores the critical nature of upcoming policy decisions.

Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, shares insights on inflation dynamics. He predicts that tariffs will push U.S. core inflation toward 3% by year's end. Gapen discusses the impact of immigration controls on sustained services inflation and emphasizes that while labor markets may be weak, consumer spending remains robust. He highlights how firms are cutting costs by reducing labor and profits, and examines the Federal Reserve's shift towards a neutral policy in response to these pressures.

Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Economist, gives a clear take on Fed policy and the outlook for interest rates. He breaks down the recent dovish hold, discusses how a new chair’s nomination could change balance sheet plans and communication, and considers market reactions and the data that will shape policy going forward.

Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, offers concise macro commentary on monetary policy. He discusses why rising oil prices, tariffs and inflation expectations may delay Fed rate cuts. He also highlights the Fed’s intense focus on inflation and how markets are parsing shifting cut probabilities.

In this insightful discussion, Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, dives into the implications of the Fed's recent rate cut. He analyzes the risks in the labor market highlighted by a significant slowdown in hiring. Gapen emphasizes the delicate balance the Fed must strike between supporting job growth and managing inflation. The conversation also touches on market reactions, exploring how investors are pricing future cuts and adjusting to the changing economic landscape.