Michael Gapen

Robert Armstrong, Financial Times commentator and Unhedged writer, joins Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. economist, for a sharp look at the Fed’s latest move. They dig into sticky inflation, Iran-driven oil shocks, pricier household bills, stagflation risks, and why the economy can look solid while many people still feel squeezed.

Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Economist, on Fed policy, inflation dynamics, and the dollar’s moves. Gil Luria, DA Davidson’s Head of Technology Research, on Microsoft and Meta earnings, AI exposure, ad growth, and tech valuations. Multiple short conversations cover Fed strategy, currency swings, cloud and AI trends, and who stands to benefit from near-term AI profits.

Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. economist, tracks why markets are brushing off Iran oil turmoil and where inflation could go next. Theresa Payton, Fortalice Solutions CEO and former White House CIO, digs into Anthropic’s Mythos model, cybercrime at machine speed, and rising fears in banking. It also explores how weaker law enforcement may be reshaping markets.

Jens Eisenschmidt, Morgan Stanley’s Europe chief, discusses uneven euro‑area growth and German fiscal levers. Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley’s Asia chief, focuses on China’s deflation risks, RMB policy and export‑led recovery. Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley’s U.S. chief, covers consumer spending, AI‑led CapEx and how investment and tariffs shape growth.

Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist (Asia growth and energy exposure). Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe Economist (euro area inflation and ECB policy). Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist (U.S. inflation and oil shock impacts). They discuss the Iran-driven oil shock, how energy prices ripple into inflation and growth, and how central banks in the U.S., Europe and Asia might react.

Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, offers concise macro commentary on monetary policy. He discusses why rising oil prices, tariffs and inflation expectations may delay Fed rate cuts. He also highlights the Fed’s intense focus on inflation and how markets are parsing shifting cut probabilities.

Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley’s Asia economist, notes supply-chain and energy linkages in Asia. Jens Eisenschmidt, Morgan Stanley’s Europe economist, outlines Europe’s acute energy and industrial strain. Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley’s U.S. economist, focuses on AI-driven capex, productivity, and labor resilience. They discuss labor market shifts, supply vulnerabilities, differential regional exposures, and scenarios for sustained oil shocks.

Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, shares insights on the U.S. growth outlook and inflation dynamics, predicting modest growth but cautioning against over-reliance on AI-driven expansion. Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist, discusses Japan's macro outlook and how currency fluctuations could force the Bank of Japan to adjust its policies. Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe Economist, analyzes upcoming inflation data in the eurozone and argues that wage disinflation could lead to European Central Bank rate cuts as early as this year.

Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, dives into the Fed's future actions amidst inflation concerns and a slowing economy. He argues the Fed will hold rates steady initially but will eventually cut more than expected due to factors like tariffs impacting consumer spending. Gapen discusses how increasing oil prices could influence inflation rates and how these dynamics might affect treasury yields and the U.S. dollar. His insights reveal a complex interaction of policies and international events shaping market expectations.

Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, shares expert insights on the implications of Chair Powell's remarks from the Jackson Hole meeting. He discusses the Fed’s shift toward a more cautious monetary policy, emphasizing the delicate balance between managing inflation and supporting employment. Gapen highlights the potential for gradual interest rate adjustments, considering the uncertainty of economic conditions and recession risks. His in-depth analysis underscores the critical nature of upcoming policy decisions.