Prof G Markets Your Bills Are About to Go Up — The Fed Can’t Stop It
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Mar 19, 2026 
Robert Armstrong, Financial Times commentator and Unhedged writer, joins Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. economist, for a sharp look at the Fed’s latest move. They dig into sticky inflation, Iran-driven oil shocks, pricier household bills, stagflation risks, and why the economy can look solid while many people still feel squeezed.
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Why The Fed Is Waiting Despite Rising Oil
- Michael Gapen says the Fed treated the Iran-driven oil spike like a classic supply shock and chose patience over action.
- Higher oil can lift inflation and unemployment together, so Jerome Powell stressed uncertainty and warned policymakers need more data.
The Dot Plot Now Signals Paralysis
- Robert Armstrong says the 2026 dot plot compressed because officials see fewer strong convictions about where rates should go.
- The Fed appears stuck at modestly restrictive rates, waiting because neither cuts nor hikes clearly solve war-driven uncertainty.
How Long High Oil Lasts Matters More Than The Spike
- Michael Gapen says oil will raise inflation quickly, but the lasting damage depends on how long prices stay elevated.
- Gasoline rises within weeks, yet if oil falls back to $60 to $70 by May, the broader U.S. outlook may not change much.