Geopolitical Cousins Epic Heat Check
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Mar 6, 2026 Matt Gertken, a geopolitical analyst focused on drones and chokepoints, weighs in on looming US-Iran tensions. He zeroes in on drone warfare and the strategic danger of the Strait of Hormuz. Short, punchy takes span asymmetric maritime threats, political pressures shaping U.S. moves, and the global economic shock a Hormuz disruption could trigger.
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Drones And Small Boats Threaten The Strait Of Hormuz
- The strategic danger is not Iran's ballistic missiles but its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz with small boats and drones.
- Matt Gertken warns even a weakened Iran or nonstate factions could spoof GPS, sink tankers, or close the chokepoint and trigger a durable oil shock.
Iran's Wide Strikes Signal Existential Resolve
- Iran is striking widely to demonstrate willingness to “go down swinging” and raise costs for any external backers of regime change.
- Jacob Shapiro says attacks across Turkey, Pakistan, Azerbaijan signal a broad deterrence message, not just retaliation at single targets.
Great Power Status Anxiety Shapes U.S. Choice To Act
- U.S. action stems from a broader nationalist-restoration impulse and status anxiety about China and Russia.
- Marko Papic links influence politics and legacy-driven choices to a willingness to pick 'low-hanging fruit' like Iran to reassert American will.