Paths to De-escalation and Political Costs

Distantly related cousin Matt Gertken joins the GC crew to dissect the escalating US-Iran conflict, and while he IS on record as the self-proclaimed "godfather of fading geopolitical risk" - even he's alarmed. His singular fixation: drones and the Strait of Hormuz. Forget the ballistic missiles, forget Tehran's skyline. If Iran can disrupt that chokepoint - even as a failed state - the world faces a global recession.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(00:47) - Oval Office Firings

(01:29) - Is This Becoming Regional War

(05:04) - Closing Hormuz Drones Threat

(08:57) - Iran Pain Threshold And Escalation

(12:37) - Azerbaijan Kurds Regime Change Signals

(13:44) - Why Iran Hits Everyone

(19:53) - Why Trump Shifted On Iran

(23:38) - Israel Influence Conspiracy Talk

(27:07) - America Heat Check And Oil Shock

(34:37) - Sparta Versus Athens Worldview

(38:07) - Deep State Distraction Theory

(39:36) - Strait of Hormuz Pain Threshold

(41:43) - Red Lines for Escalation

(44:39) - Iraq and Hezbollah Wildcards

(46:25) - Why America Reveres the Military

(51:54) - Let Them Drink Bleach Scenario

(56:47) - April 5 Base Case Forecasts

(01:03:50) - Polling and Midterm Pressure

(01:08:52) - Eurotrip Meme Detour

(01:11:14) - Oil Food Prices Final Warning

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro