Moody's Talks - Inside Economics Colyar on CPI, Dietz on Housing
Dec 19, 2025
Matt Colyar, an economist from Moody's Analytics, discusses the quirks in consumer price index (CPI) data affected by the government shutdown, highlighting the misleading drop due to insufficient fresh data. Meanwhile, Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, shares insights into the housing market's tough year ahead while pointing out opportunities, such as the dynamics between existing and new home sales, and the challenges posed by rising interest rates and builder incentives.
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Modest Nationwide Price Reset Expected
- NAHB expects modest national resale price declines (1–2%) in 2026 as builders' price discovery and rising resale inventory spread.
- Some markets already show double-digit declines, so regional dispersion will grow.
Excess New-Home Inventory Is Cutting Starts
- Builders accumulated ~500,000 unsold new homes, prompting sharp cuts to permits and starts.
- That will push completions down, reducing construction-related GDP and employment in the near term.
Starts Fall But Some Submarkets Hold Up
- NAHB projects single-family starts down ~6–7% in 2025 and just under 950,000 completions; modest recovery may appear in 2026.
- Larger spec builders drove recent weakness while custom and Midwest markets show pockets of strength.