UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Fear of fake news'
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Mar 16, 2026 Discussion of how imperfect information and social media distort market prices. Exploration of Gulf conflict impacts on information flow and government influence. Examination of data quality concerns, including a controversial PCE deflator data change. Look at oil route uncertainty, global military diplomacy, and questions around consumption incentive schemes.
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Perfect Information Is A Dangerous Assumption
- Economic models assume perfect information which rarely holds in reality.
- Paul Donovan links asymmetric knowledge and delusion to distorted prices and profit-led inflation amplified by social media and fake news.
Conflict Amplifies Fake News And Market Uncertainty
- Social media boosts fake news and encourages disbelief, worsening market pricing accuracy.
- The Gulf War is intensifying this via influencer shaping, TV pressure, and sudden information blackouts like missile intercepts.
Small Data Changes Can Erode Trust Quickly
- Economic data quality has improved over 15 years but now faces trust issues.
- A quiet data-source change to legal-fee inputs cut the PCE deflator by about 10 basis points and dented perceived impartiality.