NAB Morning Call Strong Aussie, rising Yen, less mighty dollar
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Jan 26, 2026 Gavin Friend, NAB Markets Research economist and strategist, unpacks big currency moves and macro risks. He breaks down the strong Aussie, the yen’s rebound and rumours of intervention. He also discusses surging precious metals, robust US data, and political risks from Washington. Short, sharp market talk that sets up the week ahead.
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Broad Dollar Weakness And Market Moves
- Global markets saw a broad dollar weakness with precious metals and the yen rising while the Aussie hit three-year highs.
- Silver jumped ~15% Friday and the S&P climbed 0.6%, reflecting risk appetite and FX-driven flows.
Japan Is Serious About Intervention
- Markets suspect serious Japanese intervention to cap yields and support the yen, including bond-market actions by the BOJ.
- Rumours of price-checking and possible Fed involvement amplified moves, but public confirmation is unlikely.
Intervention Needs Policy Change To Last
- Intervention rarely works unless backed by monetary policy change, so buying time may be the likely outcome without BOJ policy shift.
- Coordinated use of other central banks' FX reserves is rare, making a sustained reversal unlikely.