Bet The Process NFL Wildcard Weekend with Judah Fortgang | Sponsored by Novig
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Jan 7, 2026 Judah Fortgang, a sports analyst and Substack writer specializing in NFL strategy, dives deep into the intricacies of Wild Card Weekend matchups. He discusses the impact of quarterback performance and defenses, revealing a shift in trends for playoff teams. Judah breaks down key games, such as the Rams’ offensive efficiency and the Jaguars' transformation under pressure. He highlights the weather's effect on the Packers vs. Bears, all while naming the Jaguars as a top futures pick, making for an insightful and engaging analysis.
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End-Of-Half Strategy Has Shifted
- Teams now run far more at the end of halves, reducing late passing yards and two-minute drill production.
- Judah links this to kickoff changes, game-state optimization, and defenses aiming to limit explosive plays.
Rams' Second-Half Defensive Slide
- The Rams' defense weakened in the second half, shown by a drop in 'perfect coverage' rates.
- Carolina lacks the scheme to fully exploit that weakness, making the spread reasonable.
Model Weather Effects On Routes And ADOT
- Adjust betting views for weather and wind because they materially change downfield passing and play distributions.
- Model who will be targeted and expected ADOT shifts instead of only using team-level pass/run rates.