Moody's Talks - Inside Economics On the Brightside with Michelle Meyer
Sep 29, 2025
Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at Mastercard, lends her insights into the resilience of the U.S. economy and consumer spending trends. She forecasts a modest growth ahead, dismissing recession fears while analyzing labor market stability. Michelle discusses the composition of holiday spending, emphasizing the impact of e-commerce and inflation. Regional spending patterns reveal strong trends in the Southeast, while upside potential lies in AI investments driving productivity. A riveting conversation on the health of the American consumer awaits!
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Concentration Creates Fragility
- Job and spending gains are concentrated in a few sectors and cohorts, raising fragility risks.
- Broader diffusion of growth would make the expansion more sustainable.
Watch Real-Time Spend For Holiday Signals
- Use MasterCard's real-time spending pulse to monitor holiday sales composition and timing.
- Expect holiday retail sales about +3.6% year-over-year and watch promotion-period concentration.
Inflation Shifts Holiday Behavior
- Higher prices this year shift holiday purchases toward promotion windows and value-seeking behaviors.
- Consumers will chase discounts and substitute within baskets to avoid tariff-driven price increases.