Trumponomics What You Know About Recessions Could Be All Wrong
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Mar 11, 2026 Tyler Goodspeed, economist and author who studied 250 years of economic history and served as acting CEA chair, argues recessions usually stem from sudden, overlapping shocks to energy, food and key sectors. He challenges the boom‑bust view. He traces historical shocks from pandemics and locusts to oil disruptions and explains why shock duration and sector fragility matter.
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Recessions Come From Overlapping Shocks
- Recessions are usually caused by sudden overlapping shocks, not by expansions 'dying of old age'.
- Tyler Goodspeed finds energy and food supply shocks repeatedly serve as the decisive triggers across 250 years of US/UK history.
Recession Severity Hasn't Improved Over Centuries
- Recession depth and duration have been remarkably constant since the 1700s despite policy changes.
- Expansions have lengthened and recessions become less frequent, but most recessions still end within about a year or two.
UK's Branch Banking And Coal Shielded Recessions
- The UK avoided many recessions due to nationwide branch banking and abundant domestic coal supply.
- Goodspeed contrasts US fragmented state banking and repeated oil shocks that made US more recession-prone.
