The 1920s and Misread Booms

Everything we think we know about recessions is wrong—or at least mostly wrong—according to ExxonMobil Chief Economist Tyler Goodspeed. He argues downturns aren’t the inevitable result of overheated booms and don’t arrive simply because expansions last too long. In his new book, Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What to Do About It, which spans 350 years of US and UK economic history, Goodspeed contends recessions are typically the product of sudden, overlapping shocks—particularly to energy and food—that derail otherwise healthy expansions.

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