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Show Me the Money: Terence Kawaja’s 10 Bold Bets on AI, Ads, and the Future of AdTech

12 snips
Mar 23, 2026
Terence Kawaja, founder and CEO of LUMA Partners and veteran ad-tech investor, lays out 10 bold predictions on AI and advertising. He discusses how ads may power LLMs and the move from CPM to performance and intent-based models. He highlights a growing LLM ad ecosystem, AI-driven transparency, creative as a performance lever, consolidation, agility, and new entrants reshaping ad tech.
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INSIGHT

Show Me The Money For AI

  • Real AI winners will show measurable financial results by 2026 rather than conference buzz.
  • Terence Kawaja points to AppLovin’s Axon 2.0 driving higher sales, margins, and revenue-per-FTE as the proof point.
INSIGHT

Advertising As The Core LLM Revenue

  • Kawaja predicts advertising will become the dominant LLM business model because massive funding needs monetization.
  • He notes four LLMs raised nearly $300B and OpenAI’s $110B round makes subscriptions unlikely to cover costs.
INSIGHT

LLM Ads Move To Performance

  • LLM ad pricing will evolve from CPM to performance/intent models because AI prompts deliver stronger purchase intent.
  • Kawaja compares multi‑turn 25‑word prompts to search intent on steroids, increasing advertiser ROI potential.
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