
Marketecture: Get Smart. Fast. Show Me the Money: Terence Kawaja’s 10 Bold Bets on AI, Ads, and the Future of AdTech
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Mar 23, 2026 Terence Kawaja, founder and CEO of LUMA Partners and veteran ad-tech investor, lays out 10 bold predictions on AI and advertising. He discusses how ads may power LLMs and the move from CPM to performance and intent-based models. He highlights a growing LLM ad ecosystem, AI-driven transparency, creative as a performance lever, consolidation, agility, and new entrants reshaping ad tech.
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Show Me The Money For AI
- Real AI winners will show measurable financial results by 2026 rather than conference buzz.
- Terence Kawaja points to AppLovin’s Axon 2.0 driving higher sales, margins, and revenue-per-FTE as the proof point.
Advertising As The Core LLM Revenue
- Kawaja predicts advertising will become the dominant LLM business model because massive funding needs monetization.
- He notes four LLMs raised nearly $300B and OpenAI’s $110B round makes subscriptions unlikely to cover costs.
LLM Ads Move To Performance
- LLM ad pricing will evolve from CPM to performance/intent models because AI prompts deliver stronger purchase intent.
- Kawaja compares multi‑turn 25‑word prompts to search intent on steroids, increasing advertiser ROI potential.
