Excess Returns Disbelief Is the Real Risk: Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on Why the AI Bubble is Just Getting Started
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Jan 18, 2026 
In this engaging conversation, Gene Munster, a seasoned venture investor, and Doug Clinton, co-founder of Intelligent Alpha, delve into the future of AI and technology. They argue that the AI bull market has plenty of room to grow, despite skeptics. Key insights include predictions of NASDAQ returns post-2026, the potential outperformance of small-cap tech, and expected surges in AI capital spending. The duo also explores Apple’s evolving AI strategy and the intense competition among tech giants, highlighting the transformative impact of AI on market dynamics.
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Look For Platform Potential
- Doug Clinton says evaluate small-cap AI names by asking if they can become platforms that others build on.
- Focus on companies that can host many applications atop their models or services to achieve compounding growth.
Hyperscaler CapEx Likely Accelerates
- Munster expects hyperscaler CapEx growth to exceed current Street estimates and possibly top 50% as hyperscalers race to avoid falling behind.
- He cites Meta and NVIDIA commentary as signals pointing to materially higher CapEx.
Thinking Trumps Networking For Value
- Munster argues AI creates value in 'thinking' more than networking, so pricing won't necessarily collapse into pure commoditization.
- He invokes Jevons paradox: lower prices can drive much higher usage that preserves economic value for providers.