Excess Returns

Eric Pachman, data analyst who tracks granular labor trends. Brent Kochuba, options and flows specialist who studies dealer hedging. Ben Hunt, narrative strategist focused on common-knowledge shifts. Andy Constan, macro strategist studying oil shocks. They discuss how an oil-driven shock reshapes growth and inflation. They explain common-knowledge moments that flip asset preferences. They show how options flows and labor data can mask real market risk.

Larry Swedroe, author and investment researcher known for portfolio construction and empirical finance, breaks down private credit myths. He explains what private credit is, why it grew after 2008, and the three core risks: credit, liquidity, and concentration. Short takes cover illiquidity premiums, fund structures, media exaggeration of systemic risk, and how AI may affect software lending.

Bob Elliott, macro investor and founder of Unlimited Funds, explains why a rising oil shock could be mispriced and create fragility as economies shift toward savings. He discusses how higher gas acts as an inflation tax, why markets may understate growth damage, how deleveraging and volatility reshape trades, and how AI’s productivity claims interact with labor and demand.

Chris Mayer, investor and author who studies 100-baggers, and Robert Hagstrom, long-term value investor and Buffett scholar, discuss why markets are driven by extreme winners. They debate base rates versus studying outliers. They explore power laws, durable moats, AI’s potential to change base rates, and how earnings growth plus multiple expansion create outsized returns.

Brent Kochuba, options market specialist and founder of SpotGamma, explains why calm markets hide rising volatility risk. He breaks down put-heavy positioning, market maker hedging, OPEX turning points, and how geopolitical and credit pressures could trigger a sharp vol spike or price move. Short-term flow dynamics and the JP Morgan collar’s sticky levels get special attention.

Jared Dillian, former Wall Street trader and market commentator who runs the Daily Dirt Nap newsletter, explains why markets underprice regime shifts and geopolitical shocks. He discusses inflation flipping stock‑bond dynamics, commodities surging from energy to agriculture, the appeal of being long options, and why private markets and Fed moves matter for portfolio construction.

D.A. Wallach, venture capitalist and co-founder of Time BioVentures who invests at the intersection of biotech and tech. He explains valuing development-stage drug companies as portfolios of options. Topics include why specialists can still earn alpha, how base rates and interest rates shape biotech valuations, AI’s incremental role in drug discovery, and portfolio construction for high-uncertainty investments.

Joseph Shapochnik, portfolio manager focused on compounding businesses, discusses AI disruption, defense spending surges, and company readiness for headlines. Jim Paulsen, economist and market strategist, explains his 'new era' split and the role of macro policy. Vitaliy Katsenelson, value investor and author, promotes humility, diversification, and surviving markets. They cover AI’s impact on software, sector divergence, defense as a long tailwind, and valuation headwinds.

Joseph Shaposhnik, Rainwater Equity ETF portfolio manager who focuses on long-term, recurring-revenue businesses. He discusses how durable cash-flow compounding firms weather geopolitical shocks. He maps AI winners and losers across semiconductors, software, hyperscalers, and industrials. He also covers capital intensity, concentration risk, and what traits make companies anti-fragile in an AI-driven world.

Vitaliy Katsenelson, CEO of Investment Management Associates and author known for Soul in the Game, offers a concise investing philosophy rooted in humility. He discusses how high valuations and AI-driven change reshape returns. Short sentences cover diversification, shifting from cheap-stock screens to business quality, management integrity as a red line, faster selling when theses break, and treating investing as creative work.