Excess Returns

Edward Chancellor, financial historian and author on bubbles, traces capital-cycle echoes from railway mania to the AI data center boom. He spotlights why markets fund tech transitions but miss winners. Short takes cover AI capex races, GPU depreciation, hallucination limits for LLMs, anti-bubbles in beaten-up sectors, and why gold and old-economy value can shine when hype crowds out returns.

Brent Kochuba, options-market analyst and founder of SpotGamma, explains how short-dated option flows and dealer gamma have powered the recent AI- and semiconductor-led melt up. He breaks down zero-DTE growth, record SPX call volume, single-stock gamma in mega caps, and why OPEX and VIX expiration could trigger a volatility shift around May 19–20.

Elena Khoziaeva, Co‑CIO and portfolio manager at Bridgeway Capital, specializes in quantitative multi‑factor investing. She explains why about 46 stocks effectively drive the S&P 500, how small-cap research is distorted by IPOs and longer private lifespans, and how thoughtful factor construction, adjustments for intangibles, and AI-assisted research can create active opportunities amid market concentration.

Chris Mayer, investor and author known for long-term stock picking and owner-operator compounders. Ian Cassel, founder of MicrocapClub and microcap specialist focused on founder-led small companies. They discuss in-person management access, why vertical market software can resist AI, how AI may become table stakes, microcap survival rates, and the temperament and position sizing that separate great investors from great analysts.

Rich Bernstein, market strategist comparing today to the 1960s and debating inflation policy. Chris Davis, longtime value investor who prizes concentrated, durable businesses and great management. They discuss letting winners run, investor complacency, dividends and cash flow in inflationary times, AI as an economic versus investment story, and where market concentration masks risk.

Brent Kachuba, market‑flow and options analyst who tracks dealer positioning. Jim Paulsen, macro strategist known for data‑driven market charts. Ben Hunt, author focused on narrative‑driven market analysis. They discuss why markets ignore war and oil shocks. They explore private credit fragilities, supply‑driven inflation versus the 1970s, earnings and valuation dynamics, and how flows and option positioning mute volatility.

Richard Bernstein, macro strategist at Janus Henderson and founder of RBA Advisors, weighs in on inflation, deglobalization, and market concentration. He links rising import and defense costs to a 1960s-style inflation risk. He discusses why passive index returns may disappoint, why shorter-duration and dividend-rich assets matter, and where international and small/mid-cap opportunities may lie.

Chris Davis, chairman and long-term value investor at Davis Advisors, discusses durability, balance-sheet strength, and adapting to technological and macro shifts. He outlines three major market forces reshaping investing and why high valuations mask complacency. Topics include AI’s long-term impact, who benefits or gets disrupted, index fragility, and the common mistake of selling great companies too early.

Travis Prentice, CIO of Informed Momentum Company and momentum-focused researcher, breaks down why 52-week highs are powerful momentum signals. He explores extreme stock-level dispersion under calm indexes. He explains how AI, deglobalization, and rising passive flows reshape risk, why quality and software face pressure, and how combining momentum, value, and quality helps navigate faster, more volatile markets.

Chris Bloomstran, founder and CIO of Semper Augustus and a value-focused investor, joins to discuss market concentration and valuation risks. He explores whether we are on a secular plateau, how AI capex could become a problematic capital cycle, and why passive investors may be more exposed than they think. Conversations also cover leverage risks, Berkshire Hathaway’s cash signals, and the limits of buy-and-hold investing.