Unchained Bits + Bips: Bitcoin's Geopolitical Upturn and the $100K Question
Apr 14, 2026
Kavita Gupta, founder and general partner at Delta Blockchain Fund, is a venture investor focused on blockchain and crypto assets. She discusses ETH outperforming BTC, suspicious prediction-market bets around the Iran ceasefire, ETF inflows and institutional positioning, Bitcoin used for MENA cross-border settlement, and how geopolitics and policy could reshape crypto infrastructure and yield products.
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Prediction Markets Precede Geopolitical Moves
- Prediction markets reveal concentrated information flows and can move asset prices ahead of public announcements.
- Kavita Gupta and Steven Ehrlich note Polymarket and others showed big bets before the Iran ceasefire, suggesting insiders or informed traders impacted markets.
VC Founder Used Prediction Markets to Learn Trading
- Kavita Gupta experimented personally on hyperliquid and Polymarket to learn market dynamics rather than use fund capital.
- She described moving from hyperliquid perps to taking positions on Coinbase and watching prediction market quirks like event-specific insider advantages.
Stagger Foundation Token Sales To Avoid Dampening Price
- Hold strategic positions instead of day-trading when running a long-term fund exposed to token projects.
- Gupta keeps foundation tokens and staggers sales to avoid depressing prices during unstable markets.