How prediction markets function and risks

Why ETH outperformed Bitcoin this past week, what's really behind the prediction market activity during the Iran situation, and what comes next for institutional crypto adoption.

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A tenuous Iran ceasefire sent oil prices tumbling this past week, and crypto responded before any other asset class. Bitcoin climbed to around $72K, Ethereum outperformed with 6.7 to 7% gains in 48 hours, and billions poured back into ETFs after months of withdrawals. 

But amid the rally, uncomfortable questions are surfacing: who profited from suspicious prediction market bets placed just before the ceasefire announcement? Are Middle Eastern governments and corporations now using Bitcoin as actual settlement infrastructure? And if the Clarity Act passes without allowing yield-bearing stablecoins, has the banking lobby won? 

Kavita Gupta, founder and general partner at Delta Blockchain Fund, sits down with Steven Ehrlich to work through a week of whipsawing markets, fragile geopolitics, and structural shifts that could define where crypto goes from here.

Host:

• ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Steven Ehrlich⁠⁠⁠⁠, Head of Research, SharpLink

Guest:

• ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Kavita Gupta, Founder & General Partner at Delta Blockchain Fund

Links:

Ceasefire, Markets & Institutional Flows:

• Crypto Markets Rebound After Iran-Israel Ceasefire Deal (Unchained)

• Bitcoin ETFs Record $5 Billion in Daily Volume as Inflows Top $870 Million (Unchained)

• Crypto Adoption in MENA 2025: Crisis, Adaptation, and Growth (Chainalysis)

Prediction Markets & Insider Trading:

• DEX in the City: Why Prediction Market 'Insider Trading' Isn't Illegal — Yet (Unchained)

• DEX in the City: How Prediction Markets Pose a National Security Risk (Unchained)

• Trading Volumes on Prediction Markets Will Drop After the November Election. Will New Market Entrants Still Attract Users? (Unchained)

• DOJ and CFTC Drop Investigations Into Polymarket: Report (Unchained)

Clarity Act & Stablecoin Regulation:

• Bessent Presses Senate on Clarity Act, Labels Resistant Crypto Leaders 'Nihilists' (Unchained)

• Circle Stock Plunges 20% as Clarity Act Draft Threatens Stablecoin Yield (Unchained)

• Treasury Secretary Bessent Presses Congress to Pass CLARITY Act (The Hill)

Bessent Ramps Up Pressure on Congress to Pass CLARITY Act (CoinTelegraph)

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