Insurance Covered The role of the actuary (With Harriet Hughes)
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Jan 26, 2026 
Harriet Hughes, an actuary and reserving lead at Liberty Mutual with a maths background, explains how actuaries quantify uncertain futures in property, credit and legal lines. She unpacks reserving work, IBNR estimation, balancing models with judgment, and how AI and storytelling fit into technical roles. Short, clear takes on forecasting, collaboration with claims, and presenting tough numbers to boards.
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Adjust IBNR With Specific And General Layers
- Use actuarial methods for method IBNR, then add specific and general adjustments as needed.
- Adjust for flagged large claims and systemic shifts like tariffs or inflation.
Start With An Expected Loss Ratio
- Day-one IBNR starts from an expected loss ratio based on historical performance.
- Actuaries then adjust for recent inflation, pricing and external shocks to set the initial reserve.
Train Analogy For Reserving Forecasts
- The train-journey analogy frames a year of account from departure to final claim payments.
- Actuaries set initial expectations and then update forecasts as the journey progresses.