InFi: the Future of Finance Ep. 126: Comparing Gold vs. Bitcoin
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Feb 20, 2026 A data-driven comparison of long-term returns for gold, Bitcoin, and the S&P 500. Year-by-year and five-year rolling windows reveal when gold briefly outperformed crypto. Discussion of gold’s 2025 surge tied to central bank buying and geopolitical shifts. Speculation about the drivers behind the 2026 pullback in both Bitcoin and precious metals.
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Bitcoin Dominated Long Term Returns
- Bitcoin outperformed gold and the S&P 500 across long horizons since 2011.
- Using early-January snapshots through Feb 9, 2026, Bitcoin annualized ~126.7% vs gold ~8.9% and S&P ~11.7% over the full span.
Start Date Can Flip The Winner
- Which asset beat the others depends heavily on the chosen start date and hold period.
- For example, starting in early 2021 and holding to Feb 9, 2026, gold (21% annualized) beat Bitcoin (13%).
Bitcoin Positive From Most Entry Years
- Except for entering in early 2025, every early-January entry from 2011–2024 into Bitcoin and holding to Feb 9, 2026 produced positive annualized returns.
- The minimum annualized gain among those starts was about 13% per year.