Aprendizaje infinito A12. Resolución de problemas complejos, altas capacidades, IA y lo que se viene, con Javier G. Recuenco
Javier G. Recuenco, consultor en resolución de problemas complejos y tecnología, explica qué es el CPS y por qué importa. Habla de incentivos, política y la pantomima de soluciones fáciles. Explora la colisión entre CPS e inteligencia artificial y propone habilidades humanas clave ante la IA. Aborda también las altas capacidades y consejos prácticos para familias y jóvenes.
01:25:56
Los Cuatro Reinos De La Incertidumbre
- Hay cuatro reinos: simple, complicado, complejo y caótico, que exigen respuestas distintas.
- La historia humana es transformar lo complejo y caótico en lo conocido mediante experimentos y modelos.
Diseña Para Probabilidades, No Para Certidumbres
- Trabaja en probabilidades y acepta la incompetencia inicial frente a lo desconocido.
- Mejora tus chances con metodologías que elevan del 5% al 20% la probabilidad de éxito.
Gestiona La Verdad Con Cuidado
- Mide y gestiona la 'tasa de realidad' que pueden asumir tus interlocutores antes de dar malas noticias.
- Usa equipos especializados en truth coping para entregar realidades sin destruir a la persona.
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Introducción
00:00 • 36sec
¿Puede cualquiera aprender a resolver lo complejo?
00:36 • 2min
Diferencia entre entornos estables y de incertidumbre
02:51 • 2min
Origen y definición del CPS
04:39 • 3min
Colisión entre CPS e inteligencia artificial
07:54 • 3min
Reinos del conocimiento: simple a caótico
11:10 • 4min
Ser competente en la incompetencia
15:02 • 3min
Cómo gestiona Singular Solving el fracaso
18:17 • 4min
Medir la tasa de realidad aceptable
21:51 • 11min
Incentivos: solución y problema
32:57 • 4min
Política y la pantomima del hacer
37:00 • 10min
IA como reemplazo del trabajo rutinario
46:33 • 6min
Mapa: CPS, IA y nuestras bazas
52:54 • 37sec
El santuario humano después de la IA
53:31 • 5min
Fallos organizativos ante la transformación
58:41 • 3min
Dilema del innovador y saltar trapecios
01:01:30 • 2min
Relación entre altas capacidades y CPS
01:03:48 • 2min
Consejos para familias con niños superdotados
01:06:16 • 4min
Visibilidad y orgullo del talento
01:09:53 • 3min
Cómo aprende Javier y su curiosidad
01:12:34 • 5min
Consejo a jóvenes sobre carrera
01:17:30 • 4min
Tres libros y tres películas decisivas
01:21:32 • 4min
Outro
01:25:47 • 8sec
#49957
Problem solving 101
Ken Watanabe
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Moneyball
The Art of Winning an Unfair Game
Michael Lewis
The book tells the story of the Oakland Athletics' 2002 season, where General Manager Billy Beane and his assistant Paul DePodesta used advanced statistical analysis, known as sabermetrics, to assemble a competitive team despite a limited budget.
The approach, pioneered by Bill James, focused on metrics such as on-base percentage and slugging percentage rather than traditional measures like batting average and runs batted in.
This data-driven strategy allowed the Athletics to compete with teams having much larger payrolls, like the New York Yankees, and achieve significant success, including a 20-game winning streak and a playoff appearance.
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Freakonomics
A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything
Andrea Montero Cusset
Steven D. Levitt
Stephen J. Dubner
Freakonomics is a collaboration between economist Steven D. Levitt and journalist Stephen J. Dubner that delves into the riddles of everyday life, from cheating and crime to parenting and sports.
The book argues that economics is fundamentally the study of incentives and how people get what they want or need, especially when others want or need the same thing.
It covers various topics such as the inner workings of a crack gang, the truth about real estate agents, and the secrets of the Ku Klux Klan, using forceful storytelling and wry insight to challenge conventional wisdom.
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A Primer
Diana Wright
Donella Meadows
This book introduces readers to systems thinking, a critical skill for 21st-century life.
It explains how to understand and interact with complex systems, highlighting the importance of internal system structures and feedback loops.
The book is divided into sections on system structures and behavior, the relationship between systems and humans, and strategies for creating change within systems.
It aims to help readers develop a deeper understanding of systems to address global issues such as climate change, poverty, and social inequalities.
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Good Strategy/Bad Strategy
The Difference and Why It Matters
Richard Rumelt
In *Good Strategy/Bad Strategy*, Richard Rumelt clarifies the distinction between effective and ineffective strategies.
He argues that a good strategy is a specific and coherent response to overcoming obstacles, harnessing power where it will have the greatest effect.
Rumelt debunks elements of 'bad strategy' such as equating goals, motivational slogans, and financial targets with actual strategy.
He introduces the 'kernel' of strategy, which includes a diagnosis of the challenge, a guiding policy, and coherent action.
The book uses diverse examples from business, nonprofit, and military contexts to illustrate these concepts and emphasizes the importance of analytical rigor and focused effort in strategy development.
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The Innovator's Dilemma
When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail
Clayton M. Christensen
In this influential business book, Clayton Christensen shows how even the most outstanding companies can lose market leadership when they fail to adapt to disruptive innovations.
Christensen explains why companies often miss new waves of innovation and provides a set of rules for capitalizing on disruptive technologies.
The book uses examples from various industries, including the disk drive, mechanical excavator, steel, and computer industries, to illustrate trends that lead to success or failure in the face of disruptive technologies.
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Alicia en el País de Las Maravillas
Lewis Carroll
La historia sigue a Alicia, una niña que cae por un agujero y entra en un mundo de absurdos y paradojas lógicas, donde encuentra criaturas antropomórficas como el Conejo Blanco y el Gato de Cheshire.
La novela juega con la lógica y ha tenido un gran impacto en la literatura y la cultura popular.
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• Mentioned in 152 episodes
Thinking in bets
Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Annie Duke
In this book, Annie Duke teaches readers how to make better decisions by treating them as 'bets' on uncertain outcomes.
She emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the quality of a decision and its outcome, acknowledging the role of luck, and avoiding biases such as 'resulting' and hindsight bias.
Duke draws on her experiences as a professional poker player and combines these with insights from cognitive psychology and other fields to provide tools for making more objective and thoughtful decisions.
The book encourages readers to get comfortable with uncertainty, seek truth through diverse opinions, and learn from outcomes to improve future decision-making.
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La nueva mente del emperador
Roger Penrose
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Lights Out
Robert Lawrence Stine
Apuntes del episodio: https://www.aprendizajeinfinito.com/p/a12-javier-recuencoEn este episodio hablo con Javier G. Recuenco sobre problemas complejos, la pantomima que montan los que no quieren (o no pueden) resolverlos, los incentivos, la política, la Inteligencia Artificial y las altas capacidades.
Vienen curvas y en esta conversación Javi comparte ideas y libros para navegarlas.Temas:
00:35 ¿Puede un luterano aprender a resolver problemas complejos?
04:45 Qué es el CPS (Complex Problem Solving) y su origen
11:22 Los pilares del CPS
18:17 Cómo lidiar con una alta tasa de fracaso
27:36 El precio de resolver problemas complejos
33:04 Sustituir los incentivos es siempre la solución, y los incentivos de quien puede sustituirlos, es siempre el problema
36:50 Hablamos de política, porque si no hablan otros
46:33 Inteligencia artificial, resolución de problemas complejos y santuarios humanos
1:03:46 Altas capacidades
1:12:34 La influencia de Jennifer Batten
1:14:17 Cómo aprende Javier Recuenco
1:17:29 Consejos para jóvenes
1:21:26 Libros y películas recomendadasSuscríbete a Aprendizaje infinito para no perderte las próximas conversaciones y artículos: https://www.aprendizajeinfinito.com