#125
Mentioned in 161 episodes

Thinking in bets

Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Book • 2018
In this book, Annie Duke teaches readers how to make better decisions by treating them as 'bets' on uncertain outcomes.

She emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between the quality of a decision and its outcome, acknowledging the role of luck, and avoiding biases such as 'resulting' and hindsight bias.

Duke draws on her experiences as a professional poker player and combines these with insights from cognitive psychology and other fields to provide tools for making more objective and thoughtful decisions.

The book encourages readers to get comfortable with uncertainty, seek truth through diverse opinions, and learn from outcomes to improve future decision-making.

Mentioned by

Mentioned in 161 episodes

Mentioned by
undefined
Seth Godin
in the context of decision-making and outcomes.
15,036 snips
#792: Seth Godin on Playing the Right Game and Strategy as a Superpower
Mentioned by
undefined
Stewart Butterfield
in the context of making rational decisions about pivoting, drawing a parallel to Annie Duke's concept of expected value.
3,085 snips
Slack founder: Mental models for building products people love ft. Stewart Butterfield
Recommended by
undefined
Amol Avasare
as a tactically useful product book for thinking probabilistically and putting numbers on uncertain outcomes.
3,005 snips
Head of Growth (Anthropic): “Claude is growing itself at this point” | Amol Avasare
Recommended by
undefined
Tom Gayner
as a great book that casts things in probabilistic terms and is relevant to both poker and insurance.
881 snips
Tom Gayner: Invest Like The Best
Mentioned by
undefined
Shane Parrish
as one of her books focused on cognitive behavioral decision science and decision education.
804 snips
TKP Insights: Making (Even) Better Decisions
Recommended by
undefined
Peter Attia
after reading it and finding it insightful for decision-making in medicine.
688 snips
Improve your decision-making, frameworks for learning, backcasting, and more | Annie Duke (#60 rebroadcast)
Recommended by
undefined
Patrick Campbell
for its insights on first principles thinking.
667 snips
10 lessons on bootstrapping a $200m business | Patrick Campbell (ProfitWell)
Mentioned by
undefined
Kyle Austin Young
, it includes a section referencing a study about the accuracy of predictions.
620 snips
How to Use Probability Hacking to Achieve Your Goals
Mentioned by
undefined
Shane Parrish
as the author of "Thinking in Bets", a book about making smarter decisions.
518 snips
#37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong

The AI-powered Podcast Player

Save insights by tapping your headphones, chat with episodes, discover the best highlights - and more!
App store bannerPlay store banner
Get the app