The Dividend Cafe Monday - March 30, 2026
Mar 30, 2026
Sharp intraday market swings and which indexes held up versus which lagged. A risk‑off shift hammered high‑valuation and crypto names. Bond yield moves and why long‑term term premium matters. Commodity and energy names, midstream and refiners showing relative strength. Geopolitical tensions and policy updates adding uncertainty for investors.
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Risk Off Hits High Valuation Names Hard
- Risk-off dynamics are driving heavier losses at the top of the risk curve, with the Nasdaq down ~10% and many MAG7 names down over 20%.
- David L. Bahnsen cites bitcoin down 50% and AI names like NVIDIA down >20% as examples of concentrated downside at higher risk tiers.
Long End Term Premium Is Too High
- David argues the long end of the yield curve carries an elevated term premium that's unlikely to persist.
- He notes the 10-year rallied nine basis points to 4.35% after jumping ~50 bps since the war began, implying long yields are too high relative to growth.
Energy And Commodity Names Showing Relative Strength
- Commodity-sensitive and energy-adjacent sectors have outperformed while rate-sensitive sectors lagged as yields rose.
- Bahnsen highlights energy, midstream, refiners, and railroads transporting coal as beneficiaries of recent moves.