Daily Politics from the New Statesman Exclusive: the progressive voters abandoning Labour
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Mar 5, 2026 Steve Akehurst, polling analyst and co-author of the Persuasion UK / 38 Degrees study, explains who progressive defectors are and where they live. He outlines their demographics and financial pressures. He describes why they see Labour as 'Tory light' and how losing them could cost seats. He discusses which policy signals and cultural stances might win them back.
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Profile Of The Progressive Defector
- Progressive defectors are younger, graduate, lower-middle-class voters struggling with mortgages or renting.
- They live across the country, concentrated in commuter-belt "blue wall" seats and Wales, not just inner London pockets.
Not Far Left Just Center Left
- These defectors are centre-left, not far-left ideologues, and were Labour voters at the last election.
- They work in jobs like IT, teaching, clerical roles and are not deeply ideological but hold progressive social-democratic values.
Ethnicity Is Not The Core Factor
- Ethnicity is a secondary factor: progressive defectors are slightly whiter than average nationally.
- Local coalitions (eg Gorton) combine these core voters with ethnic-minority voters, amplifying swings to Greens locally.