The Derivative Drone Wars, Space Intelligence, and AI-powered Defense Tech Investing with Ian Winer of Center15 Capital
Mar 12, 2026
Ian Winer, West Point grad and founder of Center15 Capital, invests in growth-stage defense and national security tech. He discusses how cheap one-way attack drones strain air defenses. He explores layered counter-drone tools like jammers, directed energy, and high-powered microwaves. He also covers space-based sensors and AI speeding intelligence, plus investing in autonomy, RF detection, and cyber hardening.
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Space Sensors Shorten The Battlefield Intelligence Loop
- Space-based sensors and improved on-orbit sensor density have reduced intelligence latency, making satellites a frontline source for battlefield targeting and tracking.
- Ian Winer cites low Earth orbit imagery plus RF sensing and AI analytics as reasons space assets became the "tip of the spear" in recent conflicts.
Cheap One-Way Drones Break Traditional Cost Equations
- Small one-way attack drones dramatically change force economics by enabling high damage at very low cost compared with legacy platforms.
- Winer points to Ukraine and other conflicts showing cheap drones can threaten large assets and force reconsideration of pricey Group 5 platforms.
Interceptor Economics Are Unsustainable Against Cheap Drones
- Interceptor stocks and per-interceptor cost mismatches create unsustainable defense economics when expensive missiles are used against $15,000 drones.
- Winer warns current expenditure rates deplete inventory and manufacturing can't ramp instantly, forcing new procure/incentive models.