AI doomsday fears vs. practical risks

In this episode of The Derivative, Jeff Malec sits down with Ian Winer, West Point grad and founder of Center 15 Capital, to unpack how modern warfare and national security are being reshaped by drones, AI, and space. Using the recent conflict with Iran as a case study, they explore how cheap one-way attack drones are challenging traditional air defenses, why firing multimillion-dollar interceptors at $15,000 drones is unsustainable, and what a proper layered counter-drone strategy looks like, including jammers, directed energy, and high-powered microwaves. Ian also explains how space-based sensors and AI-driven analysis are shortening the intelligence loop, and walks through Center 15’s investments in companies like Shield AI (autonomy for unmanned systems), Epirus (high-powered microwaves for drone defense), Shift5 (cybersecurity for large platforms), and HawkEye 360 (RF detection from space). They close with what keeps Ian up at night, from attacks on civilian infrastructure to cyber risks, and lighten it up with his Mount Rushmore of military movies, from Full Metal Jacket to Red Dawn(yes, the original)...… SEND IT!Chapters:00:00-01:52= Intro

01:53-08:59 = Early Lessons from the Iran Conflict: Air Dominance, Drones, Interceptors, and Space-Based Intelligence

09:00-18:07= How Cheap Drones Are Reshaping Warfare: Drone Classes, Ranges, and Iran’s One‑Way Attack Systems

18:08-24:05= Iran’s Shahed Drones vs. Western Defenses: Costly Interceptors, Missile Stockpiles, and Broken Defense Incentives

24:06-37:20= From Drone Swarms to Force Fields: Venture Investing in Next‑Gen Counter‑Drone Tech

37:21-46:42= Directed-Energy ‘Force Fields’ and Autonomous Combat Drones: Inside Epirus and Shield AI

46:43-57:32= Cybersecurity for Jets, Trains, and Warships: Inside Shift5, Hawkeye 360, and the New Defense Tech Stack

57:33-01:11:01= How Defense-Focused VCs Back Critical Tech—and What keeps you up at night & the Mount Rushmore of Military moviesFrom the Episode: 

When Skynet Writes a Substack: The AI Doom Piece That Moved Markets: https://www.rcmalternatives.com/2026/03/when-skynet-writes-a-substack-the-ai-doom-piece-that-moved-markets/Follow along with Ian on LinkedIn and check out Center15 Capital at center15capital.com for more information!

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