BTC Sessions "There's Never Just One Cockroach" Credit Crisis Incoming | Richard Dias
Mar 17, 2026
Richard Dias, macro strategist and co-host of the Loonie Hour, outlines the mounting strain in private credit and why hidden markdowns and fund gating matter. He maps contagion paths into banks, pensions and mortgages. He discusses what central banks might do, compares this to 2008, and frames Bitcoin as an opt-out against rising CBDC risks.
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Airport Selfie With Bank Of Canada Deputy Governor
- Richard Dias bumped into Carolyn Rogers at the Vancouver airport and asked about her productivity paper; she recognized the work and took a selfie with him.
- He admires her Bank of Canada paper that warned of Canada’s productivity emergency.
Fed Reserves And SOFR Spread Are Real Liquidity Signals
- The Fed proactively expanded its balance sheet after reserve concerns; SOFR–Fed funds spreads fell from ~10 bps to ~1 bps as reserves rose.
- Tracking Fed reserves, reverse repo, TGA and SOFR spreads gives clearer liquidity signals than headlines about buybacks.
U.S. Data Was More Resilient Than Common Narratives
- U.S. growth indicators (NY Fed recession model, Atlanta GDPNow, PMIs) showed resilience heading into the energy shock, with Atlanta GDPNow near ~2.7% for Q1.
- Consumption remained supported by top-10% households owning equities and homes, muting broad recession signals despite low consumer confidence.