Contagion paths from private credit

Mentor Sessions Ep. 058: Private Credit Breakdown, US Economic Risk, Canada Collapsing, Bitcoin vs CBDC | Richard Dias

$1.8 trillion in private credit — and the cracks are already showing. Richard Dias, macro strategist and co-host of the Loonie Hour, lays out exactly why the next financial shock may already be in motion.

Rich breaks down how decades of easy money built a private credit empire — and why rising rates, fund gating, and hidden markdowns signal the unraveling has begun. You'll learn why this rhymes with 2008 but hits differently, what central banks will likely do when it blows, and why Bitcoin may be the only credible exit from a system built on valuation lies.

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⏱️ Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro & The Private Credit Warning

4:30 - What Is Private Credit & Why It Grew So Fast

14:15 - Blackstone, KKR, Apollo: How the Empires Were Built

26:40 - Fund Gating, Markdowns & Early Warning Signs

41:00 - Is This Worse Than 2008?

55:20 - Central Banks: Will They Bail Everyone Out?

1:08:45 - AI, Rate Shocks & the Perfect Storm

1:22:10 - Contagion Risk: Banks, Pensions & Your Savings

1:33:30 - Gold, Bitcoin & Protecting Your Wealth

1:40:00 - The CBDC Threat & Why It's the Bigger Risk

🔗 Links & Resources

→ Follow Richard Dias on X: @RichardDias_CFA

→ Follow Richard Dias on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@IceCapAssetManagement

→ Ice Cap Management: https://icecapassetmanagement.com/

→ Loonie Hour Podcast: https://thelooniehour.ca/

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