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Erdogan's Balancing Act
- Erdogan actively pursues balance between Russia and the West to maximize leverage.
- That balancing act creates mistrust and makes relations with both sides cooler than public appearances suggest.
Turkey Remains Strategically Useful To Russia
- Russia views Turkey as useful for strategic and economic reasons despite recent tensions.
- Turkey provides Black Sea control, travel options for Russians, and access to Western goods under sanctions.
U.S. Frustration Without Abandonment
- The United States also needs Turkey for NATO cohesion and bases, so it tolerates Erdogan's maneuvering.
- Washington will be privately frustrated but pragmatically keep working with him.