Normal Curves: Sexy Science, Serious Statistics Marathon Performance: Does high-carb fueling work?
Feb 23, 2026
01:06:44
How many carbs do you need to run your best marathon? Recent headlines suggest that 120 grams per hour is the magic number. But what’s the science behind that claim? To find out, we dug into the study fueling the hype — and were surprised by what we found. In this episode, we uncover numbers that mysteriously shift after peer review, figures that don’t match the text, and p-values that refuse to line up with their confidence intervals. Along the way, we swap bonking stories, revisit repeated-measures ANOVA, renew our antipathy for spreadsheets, and follow a trail of statistical termites to a surprisingly happy scientific ending.
Statistical topics
- Article in press vs final publication
- Data management and workflow
- Multiple testing
- P-values and confidence intervals
- Repeated Measures ANOVA
- Statistical sleuthing
- Version control in research
- Within-person study design
Methodological morals
- “Everyone makes statistical mistakes, not everyone fixes them.”
- “If the numbers aren't consistent, Excel is often part of the story.”
- “If a p-value doesn't survive the trip from text to figure, there's a problem.”
Statistical Sleuthing Extended Notes
References
- Ravikanti S, Silang KG, Martyn HJ, et al. 13C-labelled glucose–fructose show greater exogenous and whole-body CHO oxidation and lower O2 cost of running at 120 versus 60 and 90 g·h−1 in elite male marathoners. J Appl Physiol. 2025;139:1581–95. (final version)
- Article in Press of J Appl Physiol. 2025;139:1581–95.
- graph2table AI data extraction from figures. Use the discount code normalcurves20 for 20% off!
- Bob Kempainen gutting out the win at the 1996 U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials.
- N=7 is a Dinner Party LinkedIn Post
- WebPlotDigitizer
- Holmer B. The new high-carb study that’s rocking the running world. Marathon Handbook. Dec 5, 2025.
- Ivy JL, Miller W, Dover V, et al. Endurance improved by ingestion of a glucose polymer supplement. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 1983; 15:466–471.
- Coyle EF, Coggan AR, Hemmert MK, et al. Muscle glycogen utilization during prolonged strenuous exercise when fed carbohydrate. J Appl Physiol. 1986; 61:165–172.
- Coggan AR, Coyle EF. Reversal of fatigue during prolonged exercise by carbohydrate infusion or ingestion. J Appl Physiol. 1987; 63:2388–2395.
- Below PR, Mora-Rodríguez R, González-Alonso J, et al. Fluid and carbohydrate ingestion independently improve performance during 1 h of intense exercise. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 1995; 27:200–210.
- American College of Sports Medicine. Position stand: Nutrition and athletic performance. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 1996.
- Jeukendrup AE, Jentjens R. Oxidation of carbohydrate feedings during prolonged exercise: current thoughts, guidelines and directions for future research. Sports Med. 2000; 29:407–424.
- Currell K, Jeukendrup AE. Superior endurance performance with ingestion of multiple transportable carbohydrates. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 2008; 40:275–281.
- American Dietetic Association, Dietitians of Canada, American College of Sports Medicine, et al. Nutrition and athletic performance. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 2009; 41:709–731.
- Triplett D, Doyle JA, Rupp JC, et al. An isocaloric glucose–fructose beverage's effect on simulated 100-km cycling performance compared with a glucose-only beverage. Int J Sport Nutr Exerc Metab. 2010; 20:122–131.
- Stellingwerff T, Cox GR. Systematic review: carbohydrate supplementation on exercise performance or capacity of varying durations. Appl Physiol Nutr Metab. 2014; 39:998–1011.
- Thomas DT, Erdman KA, Burke LM. Position of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, Dietitians of Canada, and the American College of Sports Medicine: Nutrition and athletic performance. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 2016.
- King AJ, O’Hara JP, Morrison DJ, et al. Carbohydrate dose influences liver and muscle glycogen oxidation and performance during prolonged exercise. Physiol Rep. 2018; 6:e13555.
- Urdampilleta A, Mielgo-Ayuso J, Martínez-Sanz JM, et al. Effects of 120 vs 90 g·h⁻¹ carbohydrate intake during a mountain marathon on neuromuscular function and high-intensity run capacity recovery. Nutrients. 2020; 12:2099.
- Podlogar T, Bescós R, Wallis GA, et al. Increased exogenous but unaltered endogenous carbohydrate oxidation with 120 vs 90 g·h⁻¹ carbohydrate ingestion during prolonged endurance exercise. Front Nutr. 2022; 9:936691.
- Smith JW, Pascoe DD, Passe DH, et al. Curvilinear dose-response relationship of carbohydrate (0–120 g·h⁻¹) and performance. Med Sci Sports Exerc. 2013; 45:336–341.
- Lukasiewicz C, Vandiver KJ, Albert ED, et al. Assessing exogenous carbohydrate intake needed to optimize human endurance performance across sex: insights from modeling runners pursuing a sub-2-hour marathon. J Appl Physiol. 2024.
Kristin and Regina’s online courses:
Demystifying Data: A Modern Approach to Statistical Understanding
Clinical Trials: Design, Strategy, and Analysis
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