The Bayesian Conspiracy

111 – Rational Practices in Everyday Living

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May 20, 2020
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INSIGHT

Science As Social Attire

  • Many people treat science as a social badge rather than a model-driven inquiry.
  • Scott Alexander warns 'science as attire' leads people to adopt scientific-sounding beliefs to join an in-group, not because they seek truth.
INSIGHT

Rationality Means Getting Less Wrong

  • Rationality is a process of making models less wrong, not achieving instant perfection.
  • Incremental model improvements accumulate toward the ideal; aim to be a bit more accurate whenever possible.
INSIGHT

Why Fake Explanations Fail Prediction

  • Fake explanations (like phlogiston) feel like answers but don't enable prediction or extension.
  • Eliezer's post: theories must predict tomorrow, not just explain yesterday, or hindsight will fool you.
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