The Bayesian Conspiracy

They revive the red-button/blue-button thought experiment and dissect why a social app turned it into a real, emotional test. They explore how making hypotheticals personal strains relationships and fuels online tribal celebration. They debate mapping game-theory puzzles onto real-world ethics and when it is reasonable to refuse unmoored thought experiments.

They debate how far the right to be wrong should extend, especially around controversial AI doom claims. Tensions from a Twitter kerfuffle and community norms about shaming and tolerance come up. They weigh comparisons to historical moral culpability, discuss violence as a tactic, and stress law, policy, and global coordination as responses to systemic risks.

Casual debate about whether we should 'chill out' on AI alarmism in 2028, exploring tone, persuasion, and communication pitfalls. They weigh capabilities trajectories, singleton versus multipolar risk views, and likely real-world warning shots. Conversations cover human-guided AI creativity, an UnSlop fiction contest, fundraising dynamics, sustainable motivation for safety work, and plans to revive a rationalist learning community.

They debate whether some animal lovers should eat meat and weigh health risks, ethics, and lower-suffering seafood. They wrestle with where small donors fit amid big philanthropy and whether local, self-funded projects beat institutional giving. They probe EA culture, belonging, and alternatives like small cohorts and community networks.

We relive the last 48 hours of the future of humanity being wrestled over. The Pentagon wants to use Claude for comprehensive mass surveillance of Americans and autonomous kill-bots, and Anthropic says no. The Pentagon retaliates with extreme prejudice. With guest-star Matt. LINKS Washington Post summary Anthropic’s response Trump’s response Hegseth’s unhinged lunacy We Will Not Be Divided – Goggle and OpenAI employees open letter Eliezer on the tech/govt war Scott Alexander tweet RSP comment Opus3 Retirement Paid Bonus content for the week – Full Video, Preshow Chat Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning someday

We are inspired by Andrew Cutler’s Writing for AI to consider the value of writing for LLMs LINKS Andrew Cutler’s Writing for AI Gwern’s Writing for LLMs Tracing Woodgrain’s Reliable Sources Shambaugh’s An AI Agent Published a Hit Piece on Me Eneasz’s Stone Age Billionaire Can’t Word Good InkHaven LessOnline The main purpose of the AFFINE Seminar is to give promising newcomers to AI alignment an opportunity to acquire a deep understanding of some large pieces of the problem, making them better equipped for work on the mitigation of AI existential risk. AFFINE Alignment Seminar Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow chatter, Full Show Video 00:00:49 – Announcements & Feedback 00:42:15 – Writing for AI 01:23:15 – AFFINE Alignment Seminar 01:31:11 – Guild of the Rose 01:33:37 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning soon

A participant recounts an immersive CFAR workshop: hands-on practice, cohort dynamics, trigger plans, and lasting emotional shifts. The conversation explores Daystareld’s idea of epistemically honest reassurance and how to comfort others without lying. They weigh when to correct versus reassure and give truthful, empathetic phrasing that avoids false hope.

WSCFriedman gets to the core of what HPMOR is ACTUALLY about, and finally pinpoints why we love it so much, in his essay Harry Potter And The Methods Of Rationality Is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer. LINKS Audio version of HPMOR is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer, from AskWho William’s blog, “As Our Days” ACX Non-Book Review 2025 Winners Post Just HPMOR substack, and Spotify playlist Why the AI Water Issue Has Nothing to Do With Water (and audio version here, again from AskWho) Money is Life Eneasz’s post on InkHaven Inkhaven.Blog – apply today! Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow chatter, Full Show Video 00:04:33 – Announcements & Feedback 00:27:24 – Eneasz’s Podcast Meta-Worries 00:28:21 – HPMOR Is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer 01:28:17 – Guild of the Rose 01:31:18 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon, or if you prefer Our SubStack Hey look, we have a discord! What could possibly go wrong? We now partner with The Guild of the Rose, check them out. LessWrong Sequence Posts Discussed in this Episode: on hiatus, returning soon

A lively breakdown of Ben Pace’s seven vices of rationalists, treating useful traits turned toxic. Short takes on contrarianism, pedantry, over-explaining, social obliviousness, and stubbornness. Discussion of trust, when critique kills momentum, and real-world tradeoffs. Reflections on writing practice, show format changes, and community fundraising highlights.

A short story by Ben Pace. Original can be found here. Donate to the fundraiser here! Harry sings karaoke here. Happy New Year.