
The Metrics Brothers The Rule of 40 Becomes the Rule of 60
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Mar 11, 2026 A deep dive into why SaaS metrics are shifting from the Rule of 40 to a tougher Rule of 60. They trace SaaS history, explain how valuation math and multiple compression drive new expectations. The conversation covers debt pressure, CAC inflation, AI’s mixed effects on margins, and the radical operational moves companies face to meet higher performance thresholds.
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Origins And Meaning Of The Rule Of 40
- The Rule of 40 sums growth rate and profit margin to judge SaaS balance.
- Dave Kellogg traces it to post-2008 cheap capital and Brad Feld's 2015 call for balancing growth and profitability.
Macro Cycles Drove SaaS Valuation Behavior
- Public SaaS markets shifted across eras as interest rates and capital availability changed, moving from growth-at-all-costs to balance.
- Salesforce price history is used as a proxy to show cheap capital (2008–2021) then a 2022 reset with rising rates and multiple compression.
Growth Still Dominates Valuation Multiples
- Growth explains far more of enterprise-value-to-revenue multiples than free cash flow margin in regressions.
- Ray Rike cites Meritech data: growth correlation 0.55 vs free cash flow margin 0.16, making growth ~3.7x more impactful today.
