Ian McKenzie, leader of the Guild of Property Professionals and seasoned estate agency expert, breaks down week 4 of the 2026 UK housing market. Listings and gross sales are strong. Discussion focuses on high withdrawal rates from overvaluing, price reductions, net sales trends, and a detailed Walthamstow market deep dive with agency comparisons.
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insights INSIGHT
Asking Vs Sale Price Gap Is Predictable
The average asking vs sale price gap sits around 16â17% historically and remains similar now.
Use a simple percentage adjustment on comparable asking prices to estimate likely sale prices reliably.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Free Scripts To Win Negotiations
Christopher offers free scripts to get price reductions and beat cheap fees by texting a number.
He adapted American scripts into British language and his clients see improved results.
insights INSIGHT
High Withdrawals Signal Overvaluing Problem
Nearly half of properties leaving agents' books in January were withdrawn unsold, driven largely by overvaluing.
Long sole-agency agreements and slow price reductions reduce the probability of exchange.
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UK Property Market Update
The headlines for the 4th week of the 2026 UK Property Market (week ending Sun 1st February 2026)
đŠ Listings - Strong.
â¨133k new properties have come onto the market YTD , already 1% ahead of 2025, 14% above 2024, and 28% higher than the 2017â19 average.
đŠ Gross Sales - Strongâ¨
89k UK homes sold STC YTD house , 19% higher than 2024 and 27% above pre Covid norms.
đŠ Net Sales - Strongâ¨
67k UK net home sales YTD (Gross sales less Fall Thrus) running 21% ahead of 2024, 38% ahead of 2023 and 23% above the 2017â19 average.
đŠ Overvaluing - Awful
48.4% of the homes that left UK Estate Agents books in January were withdrawn unsold. Main cause - blatant overvaluing supported by long sole agency agreements of 20+ weeks. Discussed in greater length in the YouTube video
Detailed Breakdown âŚ
â New Listings
⢠36.6k new properties came onto market this week in week 4, up as expected from 35.2k last week.
⢠2025 weekly average: 30.6k.
⢠10-year week 4 average : 33k
⢠Year-to-date (YTD): 133.1k new listings, 0.1% above than 2025 YTD (132k), 13.9% above 2024 YTD (116.8k) and 27.5% above the 2017â19 average (104.4k)
â Price Reductions
⢠20.5k reductions this week
⢠12.2% of resi homes for sale were reduced in January. Compared to Dec 7.6%, Nov 8.8%, Oct 12.8%, Sept 14.1%. Jan 25 - 12.8%. Jan 24 - 11.1%
⢠2025 average was 12.8%, versus the five-year long-term average of 10.74%.
â Sales Agreed
⢠26.1k homes sold stc this week 4, up from 24.6k last week.
⢠Week 4 average (for last 10 years) : 24.4k
⢠2026 weekly average : 22.2k.
⢠YTD: 88.8k gross sales, which is 7.7% behind Week 4 YTD of 2025 (96.2k), yet 19.1% ahead of wk.4 2024 (k) and 26.6% above the 2017â19 average (70.1k).
⢠Thoughts - January 2025 was an exceptional month as we had the stamp duty deadline for April 2025 - here it was a good sales month. To be ahead of 2024 and pre Covid years by such an amount is good to see.
â Price Diff between Listings & Sales
⢠Average Asking Price of listings last week £416k
⢠Average asking price of Sales Agreed (SSTC) last week was £355k
⢠A 17.1% difference (long term 10 year average is 16% to 17%).
â Sell-Through Rate
⢠13.6% of homes on agentsâ books went SSTC in January â26. (Jan â25 - 15% / Jan â24 - 13.9%)
⢠Pre-Covid average: 15.5%.
â Fall-Throughs
⢠5,336 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 482k home Sold STC).
⢠Weekly average for 2025: 6,100.
⢠Fall-through rate: 20.5%, slightly down from 21.5% last week.
⢠Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%).
â Net Sales
⢠Big jump in net sales from last week. 20.7k, up from 19.3k last week and 15.8k the week before).
⢠Ten-year Week 3 average: 19.5k.
⢠Weekly average for 2026: 16.7k.
⢠Weekly average for the whole of 2025: 19.2k.
⢠YTD: 66.8k, which is 6.7% behind Wk.4 of 2025 (71.6k), 21% ahead of wk4 2024 (55.4k) and 23% ahead of wk4 2017â19 (54.2k).
â Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal)
⢠Jan â26 Stats : 51.6% of homes that left agentsâ books exchanged & completed in Jan. (Note this figure will change throughout the month as more Feb stats come in).
⢠December 60.2% / November 55.2% / October 53.3% / September: 53.1% / August :55.8% / July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%.
⢠Jan 25: 54.3% / Jan 24: 50.7% / Jan 23: 54.4% / Jan 22: 68.6%
â The YouTube Show
The YouTube âUK Property Market Stats Showâ for the week ending Sunday 1st February 2026 (week 4) with the brilliant Iain McKenzie
https://youtu.be/2lqWNQLVFRU