100% Out of US Stocks | Andy Constan on AI, War Risk and the Shift Abroad

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Mar 3, 2026

Andy Constan, founder of Damped Spring Advisors and macro strategist focused on geopolitics and credit, discusses evaluating geopolitical shocks with skeptical, low‑confidence thinking. He explores how markets price the Iran conflict, the funding challenge of massive AI capex, shifts from US to international markets, and why credit and funding conditions are the near‑term risks to watch.

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ADVICE

Filter News By Experience And Low Confidence

Streamline information intake by prioritizing experienced thinkers who express low confidence and avoid high-confidence non-experts.
Andy Constan recommends seeking people with domain experience, good critical thinking, and humility rather than politicized or confident Twitter pundits.

INSIGHT

Cross Asset Prices Reveal Divergent War Probabilities

Markets can price the same geopolitical event differently across assets, creating potential cross-asset opportunities.
Andy tracked oil, bonds, equities, gold and VIX and noted they implied different paths for de-escalation after the Iran strikes.

INSIGHT

War Returns Are Misleading Due To Small Samples

Historical war-return statistics suffer from tiny sample sizes and survivorship bias, so past patterns are poor predictors.
Andy stresses macro history matters but cautions against overfitting results from a few wars or decades.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors for a wide-ranging discussion on geopolitical risk, AI and productivity, capital flows, credit markets, fiscal policy, and the shift from US to international equities. Andy walks through the framework he uses to evaluate uncertainty, from wars and geopolitical shocks to the long-term implications of artificial intelligence, and explains why capital markets and funding conditions may matter more than bold narratives. We also explore growth, inflation, Fed policy, and the structural case for global diversification in today’s macro environment.

Main topics covered

A practical framework for analyzing geopolitical shocks, including red flags, green flags, and how to evaluate information quality during times of uncertainty
How markets are pricing the current conflict with Iran across oil, equities, bonds, gold, and volatility
Why historical market performance after wars may offer limited predictive value due to small sample sizes
How to think about AI from a macro perspective, including GDP growth versus GDP share and who ultimately captures the gains
The capital markets implications of massive AI-related capex and whether equity and credit markets can fund current spending plans
Growth, inflation, and the Fed: how fiscal stimulus, wealth effects, QT, and labor market trends are shaping the current macro backdrop
Why Andy has shifted away from US assets toward international markets, including the role of bond yields and global risk parity
A critical look at the Trump accounts proposal and the broader issue of fiscal deficits and capital allocation
The key risks Andy is watching over the next three to six months, especially around credit markets and funding conditions

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction and overview of discussion topics
01:01 Framework for evaluating geopolitical shocks and information quality
11:46 Market reaction to the Iran conflict and asset pricing implications
23:00 Why historical war data may not be reliable for market forecasting
27:03 How to analyze AI’s impact on productivity and economic growth
37:00 AI capex, credit markets, and funding risks
42:24 Growth, inflation, and Fed policy in the current cycle
49:20 The case for international equities over US markets
56:20 Trump accounts, fiscal policy, and capital allocation
01:02:23 What Andy is watching most closely in the months ahead