The Debate Talks or theatre? Claims of peace talks to end Iran war collide with denials
Mar 24, 2026
Nomi Bar-Yakov, international negotiator focusing on back-channel diplomacy. Jasmine Al-Gamal, former Pentagon advisor on U.S. policy and military-diplomatic trade-offs. Bertrand Besson-Seno, ex-French ambassador with Gulf mediation experience. Payman Asmodeur, regional analyst on Iranian strategy. They debate claims of secret talks, potential mediators like Pakistan, the impact of Lebanon and Gaza-style operations, and how domestic politics shape urgency.
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US And Israel Have Diverging Lebanon Goals
- US and Israeli objectives are diverging over operations in Lebanon and wider Iran policy.
- Jasmine Al-Gamal warns the US may pressure Israel to withdraw if Israel's Lebanon campaign risks wider destabilisation and refugee flows.
Gulf States Want Iran Contained But Not Full War
- Gulf states privately fear escalation despite wanting reduced Iranian influence.
- Bertrand Besson-Seno explains Gulf rulers value Vision 2030 stability and worry an expanded war would harm investment and their economies.
Israel Informed But Unhappy About US Talks
- Israel was likely briefed by the US and is dissatisfied rather than surprised by talks.
- Nomi Bar-Yakov says negotiations would probably be led by Iran's foreign minister, not only IRGC commanders like Ghalibov.