What back-channels can realistically achieve

Are diplomatic talks to end the Iran conflict actually happening? Donald Trump has hinted at "major" progress, but the White House downplayed this. Iran says no, Qatar says they're not involved, while there's increasing speculation that Pakistan could be the host of talks later this week. Yet all of this comes as Israel says it plans to push into Lebanon as far as the Litani River against Hezbollah and will use a Gaza-style approach, which resulted in a humanitarian catastrophe. So where are we at? Are we witnessing a high-stakes poker game where someone has to blink first?