Forward Guidance How I Called 2026's Biggest Rally | Vincent Delaurd
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Feb 11, 2026 
Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX, is a macro strategist focused on fiscal, monetary, and geopolitical drivers. He lays out a three-bubble 2026 thesis. He explains why tax receipts signal stronger nominal growth. He discusses fiscal stimulus, Kevin Warsh’s likely Fed path, an AI-driven CapEx boom, and why global diversification and commodities matter.
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Daily Tax Receipts Are The Best Real-Time GDP Signal
- Tax collections are the clearest real-time proxy for nominal income and economic activity, avoiding noisy survey data.
- Vincent Deluard tracks daily Treasury receipts to argue against recession forecasts and for strong nominal growth into 2026.
Refund Checks Can Kickstart A Fiscal Wave
- Large retroactive tax refunds (~$200bn) will hit households quickly and behave like a stimulus that gets spent.
- Strong tax receipts plus potential political incentives create fiscal room for further stimulus in 2026.
How A Finance Ministry Shaped His View On Taxes
- Vincent's interest in taxes began from working at the French Ministry of Finance and shaped his data-first approach.
- He uses withheld payroll taxes as a clean proxy for formal earnings growth.
