FDD Morning Brief Erdogan's neo-Ottoman ambitions | feat. Sinan Ciddi
Feb 27, 2026
Sinan Ciddi, Senior Director of FDD's Turkey Program and regional expert on Turkish foreign policy. He maps potential successors to Erdogan and key power players. He outlines Turkey’s long-term military footprint in Syria and risks of a U.S. pullout. He explains Ankara’s expanding bases and influence across Africa and lays out Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman strategic vision.
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Erdogan Grooming Dynastic Succession
- Recep Tayyip Erdogan is grooming a dynastic succession with heavy influence to install his son as successor.
- Erdogan has nominated allied ministers and built a political team to ensure his son's transition and shield himself from retribution.
Potential Successors Beyond The Son
- Several Erdogan-era contenders exist including Hakan Fidan and Bayraktar but the son remains the favored successor.
- Fidan lacks a clear public ambition and Bayraktar publicly says he's not interested despite his defense-industry profile.
Reassess U.S. Ambassador Influence In Ankara
- Re-evaluate U.S. diplomatic posture toward Turkey given Tom Barrack's alignment with Ankara.
- Barrack has effectively advanced policies favoring Turkish objectives, undermining U.S. support for Kurdish partners and regional allies.