Moody's Talks - Inside Economics No Jobs Friday
Oct 3, 2025
In a thought-provoking discussion, Lisa Simon, Chief Economist at Revelio Labs, shares insights on the state of the labor market amid a government shutdown. She highlights how private data, like Revelio's workforce analytics, can fill gaps left by absent government statistics. Topics include notable trends in job postings and salary growth, the impact of H‑1B visas, and current layoff notifications. Lisa provides a sneak peek into Revelio's recent findings, showcasing industry fluctuations and emphasizing the delicate balance of hiring in uncertain times.
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Hiring Is Narrow, Led By Health And Education
- September's job gains were concentrated in education and health, while leisure and hospitality weakened.
- Tech, finance, and professional services showed employment declines, signaling a narrow base of strength.
New-Hire Salary Growth Has Slowed
- Revelio tracks salaries from new job postings as a 'speed' of wage inflation for new hires.
- New-salary growth has slowed to about 2% year-over-year and fell 0.3% month-over-month.
Four Past Shutdowns Delayed Jobs Reports
- Marisa found four historical instances where a government shutdown delayed the jobs report since the early 1990s.
- Those delays created recall and data-collection issues, especially for the household survey.