Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 317: George Selgin on Trump Tariffs, Fed Independence and Dollar Vulnerability
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Jul 17, 2025 
George Selgin, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a prominent economics professor, discusses striking parallels between Trump’s policies and the New Deal era. He highlights the lessons from history, particularly regarding tariff strategies, and warns about the complexities of trade deficits. The podcast also dives into the tensions between the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration, emphasizing the risks of politicizing monetary policy. Finally, Selgin offers new perspectives on the New Deal, challenging common misconceptions about its impact on economic recovery.
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New Deal's Business Impact
- Early New Deal banking resolutions helped business confidence.
- Later New Deal policies were anti-business, increasing uncertainty and delaying recovery.
Tariff Policy Misunderstandings
- Trump's tariff threats repeatedly create market uncertainty.
- Tariffs are wrongly based on trade deficits, not actual trade barriers, leading to poor policy results.
Tariffs' Economic Effects
- Tariffs act as one-time supply shocks, raising production costs and reducing output.
- Inflation spikes from tariffs are temporary unless fiscal or monetary policies worsen them.
